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View Diary: NC-Sen, Pres, Gov: Our latest polling (148 comments)

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  •  Research Triangle = as much as 1/3 of NC's votes (1+ / 0-)
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    Iberian

    depending on where you draw the "triangle"    

    The problem with SUSA and R2K is that their geographic categories are pretty loose, and this state is extremely specific in terms of voting patterns.  There are 14 counties that account for about 50% of NC's votes, and the remaining 86 counties provide the rest.  Of the "big 14," I'd say 9 (maybe ten) have a real shot at breaking toward Obama.  Of the "smaller 86," I'd think maybe a dozen at best?  But if the surveyor is calling the counties surrounding Wake/Durham/Orange - counties still within the Metro area we might call the "Research Triangle," but less a part of its political culture - they're going to get a skewed sample.  The skew will be worse in other parts of the state.  How much of the "Western" comes from Asheville/Boone (Obama strongholds) versus every other part of the mountains?  See what I mean?

    So, again, I'd say stick with the pollsters who know the state well - PPP and Civitas, as well as Yang's recent.  Once the conventioncraziness and Palinpalooza subsides, then a national pollster might get a handle. Until then, I wouldn't count on it.

    McCain/Palin 08: More of the Same, But Worse

    by thisniss on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:38:50 PM PDT

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    •  Very interested in Northeast NC (1+ / 0-)
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      thisniss

      I'm not worried about Triangle, it broke records in primary and will again in GE in turnout for Obama.

      I'm very interested in Fort Bragg area, that's a very volatile area this election cycle.

      •  Cumberland and Oslow Counties also had huge (0+ / 0-)

        turnout for Dems during the primary - 3:1 Dem:Rep voting in the primaries, and the Rep voters didn't go big for McCain.

        In Cumberland (Fort Bragg) and Onslow (Camp Lejeune), Obama had huge primary margins and big turnout.  Cumberland is always one of NC's largest turnout counties, but Onslow doesn't usually vote at a rate commensurate with its size.  Hopefully this year will have higher turnout, and pro-Obama.

        I know it runs counter to the common wisdom, but I think the military counties in NC could actually be good opportunities for Dem pickups this year.  Obama has continued to lead on "Iraq" in vote-by-issues breakdowns for NC voters, and I know that military families, vets, and enlisted men and women (versus the brass) have a lot to do with that.

        As for Northeast - I know less about that area.  I know that there are coastal areas that have some po. Wilmington, I would think there's definitely favorable factors. New Bern, maybe?  Outer Banks, who knows?    

        McCain/Palin 08: More of the Same, But Worse

        by thisniss on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 05:59:50 PM PDT

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        •  wilmington is fairly dem (polls might say leans) (0+ / 0-)

          wilmington is southeast nc
          the tip of cape fear (new hanover county)

          princeton has some nice maps that outline the counties
          new hanover county is trending blue if you ask me
          http://www.princeton.edu/...

          i wouldn't be surprised to see obama take this county with a double digit victory... also notice that the bluest parts of nc aren't the big cities, but smaller ones like whiteville, laurinburg, elizabethtown, and lumberton.  fayetteville, with fort bragg one county over from the dark blue of blade, columbus, and robeson counties is still about 50/50 it looks (or at least did in 2006).

          so i bet we'll see more of a purple color in the next set of princeton county election maps for 2008

          None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free. Goethe
          Heathbar's Crunch

          by Dr Seuss on Sun Sep 14, 2008 at 11:08:24 PM PDT

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