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View Diary: 9/17 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 48, McCain 44 (226 comments)

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    You are a problem with your Demographics. It's not possible than we will have 13% from latino voters. The real numbers for 2004(not exit poll but by the US office) is 6.2% latino vote. The latino organization thin than this year the latino vote will increase by 19% for 9 million vote. 7.5% or 8% will be from latino voters this year. I'm a barack supporter but i think it's important to have a good tracking and a good crosstab. Please look.
    •  some think (0+ / 0-)

      the numbers you cite is an underestimate.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:06:28 AM PDT

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    •  I don't think they're applying a likely (0+ / 0-)

      voter screen or weighting for ethnicity.  Just a hunch.  And this would be about right for RV.

      The interesting thing about Latino turnout is, presuming a targeted turnout operation, you will probably end up seeing Latino turnout nationwide at typical (relatively low) historical levels.

      So in CA, NY, TX, AZ, IL not swing states, Latino turnout not substantially higher than historically.  Leading to low Latino turnout nationwide.

      As long as they get high Latino voter turnout in Arlington, in Albuquerque, in Pueblo, it's all good.

      Yes, Santa Claus, there is a Virginia. And it's going Democratic.

      by Anarchofascist on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:21:23 AM PDT

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