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View Diary: The disappearing Bradley effect (14 comments)

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  •  Not so fast (0+ / 0-)

    If there was no Bradley effect, Harold Ford would have been a Senator from Tennesee.  I know Obama is up big right now in the polls, but I still expect this to be a close race, and part of that is racism.  I still think there are many whites in America who are not ready for a black president, but will not come out and say it.

    •  I think you're confusing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      smari006, vbdietz, Roger Fox

      The Bradley effect with outright racism...

      Make friends with the horror...

      by sandav on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:27:24 AM PDT

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    •  Was Ford ahead in the polls, only to lose ? (0+ / 0-)

      I dont think so.

      FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 10:29:05 AM PDT

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      •  Roger do you honestly believe that Obama will (0+ / 0-)

        Win this thing by 8 points, when Gore and Kerry couldn't win at all?  Whether people lie about it olr not, racism exists, it hurt Ford and it will hurt Obama.

        •  Right off the bat....It isnt 2000 or 2004 (0+ / 0-)

          secondly you appear to not cite that the Bradley effect was in effect in the Harold Ford race.

          W/O checking IIRC Ford was in a tight race, he was not up by 8 or 10, only to lose by a whisker.

          Is my recollection fairly correct ?

          FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 11:06:33 AM PDT

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          •  Roger (0+ / 0-)

            What is your position here?  That the "Bradley effect" is diminishing, or that racism is diminishing?

            I see no reason to think that this election wlll be a blowout.  People do lie in polls, because they do not want to be percieved as racist.

            So, no, I do not believe the current spread in the polls, I will go out on a limb and say this.  If Obama is ahead in a state by the margin of error, he will lose that state.

            •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

              If Obama is ahead in a state by the margin of error in a state in which his organization is much larger than McCain's he will win.  Example is Virginia where we have 42 campaign offices to McCain's 5.  Our strong field operation will net us an additional 3-5 percent.

              Now if Obama is ahead by the margin of error in states where he may not have a much stronger field operation than McCain, then maybe he'll lose those states.  I don't know what states those are however.

    •  I have to agree (0+ / 0-)

      Harold Ford was defeated by outright racism.  There was no subtlety about the racism involved in that election.

    •  Like Sandav said (0+ / 0-)

      Ford lost due to flat out bigotry.  The Bradley effect is not what you think it is; it does not state that black candidates lose due to racism, rather, it states that a black candidate's poll numbers are inflated by people who voice their support to pollsters, but for whatever reason vote instead for the white candidate on eleciton day.

      We should also consider the possibility of a reverse Bradley effect caused by voters privately supporting Obama who fear alerting family or friends to their secret when they have the pollster on the phone.

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 08:23:11 AM PDT

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