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View Diary: NC-Sen, NC-Pres: Obama leads by 2, Hagan by 8 (281 comments)

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  •  my prediction (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    alnc, dotalbon

    Obama wins a close one: 273-265
    He wins 2004 Kerry states + Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico (and maybe Nevada)

    I just don't see Obama taking Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, or Ohio.

    And if Obama happens to lose Pennsylvania or Michigan, we are doomed.    

    •  I agree with you except for Virginia. (5+ / 0-)

      I don't think NC will happen this time, but it is still a slight possibility. I think if he gets NC it will already be a blow out.

    •  Obama will take Virginia (7+ / 0-)

      "Activism is not a trip to the corner store ... it is a journey into the dark." -- Rebecca Solnit

      by dotalbon on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:31:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He'll get either Ohio or Florida... (6+ / 0-)

      most likely Florida.

      Somewhere...Abraham Lincoln is smiling.

      by David Kroning on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:34:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Outlook better than that. (8+ / 0-)

      He can take VA and NC, and IN, OH, MO as well. He's within four points in ALL of those states.  The remaining debates and how much he's willing to commit to each state will be crucial.

      In fact, if you listen to carnacki, West Virginia could be a surprise win as well. Could be Obama knows something we don't, because he's pouring the resources into that state, which after all has been solidly blue at everything but President for decades.

      I say at least one Southern state will be an important part of an Obama victory, and essential to his goal of being a Unity President. Winning a Southern state will help frame him as a President for all America.

      Courage, fellow Democrat. Victory is ours if we want it bad enough.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:36:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  victory (0+ / 0-)

        is in the west, not the south. obama may take some southern states in 2012.

        •  He leads in VA right now. (1+ / 0-)
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          You want to isolate the South, you gotta get not just a solid west but a solid farm belt, and make inroads among the Mormons too. And that's a tall order.

          There's liberal Southerners working for Obama. Virginia is the best prospect. guess is Obama will get the most votes but will be declared the loser. North of the eight most likely twice-Bush states that Obama might win (the others are VA, OH, MO, CO, NV, IN, and FL).

          Don't count it out. We lose for certain if we count it out.

          REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

          by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:48:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  points taken (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            but i don't trust southerners (lived most of my life in louisiana). currently living in west virginia. there are different types of democrats (reagan, liberal, progressive, etc.) and it's safe to say that many southern democrats are not liberal or progressive (especially the white ones). they are holdovers from the civil rights movement, those that have been voting republican for many years but never bothered to change their party affiliation. my father switched in 1980 and my mother in 1988.

            i just don't see obama winning a single southern state in 2008. maybe florida but i no longer consider it a southern state. and obama will be lucky to break 40% in WV (my prediction 41%, kerry got 43%). i know he has polled as high as 46 but i've been volunteering here and i just don't see those kinds of numbers.

            as for IN, no democrat has gotten more than 42% since 1992. i don't see that changing.

            victory lies in the west: colorado, new mexico, and perhaps nevada. throw in iowa and obama wins. im not counting him out, i just see a different path to victory.

    •  NC has never been organized at this level (19+ / 0-)

      ... in my lifetime.  In general, you ignore a state, you don't do so well in it.  Clinton came close in 1992, but never really visited the state.  Gore and Kerry wrote it off early, and there was never any ground game here.

      Obama's ground game is IMMENSE in this state right now.

      Long time to go before the election, and lots of stuff could happen, but I'm feeling the best about seeing NC go blue as I ever have.

    •  Obama WILL win NC (1+ / 0-)
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      I don't care what anyone "predicts."  I live here.  It's going to happen.

      As long as he's polling within (roughly) 5% of McCain in mid-October, I think he'll win.  If he's up in mid-October and McCain doesn't manage a big turnout on election day, Obama will win BIG.  

      O's campaign knows how to work NC's Early Voting like you wouldn't believe.  They could win this state before election day even happens.  You can predict all you want, but the numbers are on our side.  It will happen, just like it did in the primaries.  Obama was supposed to win NC by ~5% - he won by 14.6%.  He'll win.  Believe it.

      McCain/Palin 08: More of the Same, But Worse

      by thisniss on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 08:27:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  predictions (0+ / 0-)

        if you are referring to my prediction, i don't care what you "predict" either. what if obama isn't up in mid-october in nc? so much could happen between now and nov 4 despite the early voting.

        i realize obama is much more organized than gore and kerry were, but that still doesn't change the fact that obama is a minority. and you can throw the primaries out the door. obama almost won texas but he'll be lucky to get 39% in the general.

        currently there is only one black in the senate (obama) and only 42 in house (less than 10%). are these numbers low because there aren't enough qualified blacks, or could it be some other reason?

        we are only 44 years removed from civil rights and racism is still formidable but in different ways. nowadays, one way racists can express themselves is at the polls.

        i sincerely hope you're right and i'm wrong. and i'll be glad to eat my words.

        •  Arghh!!! (0+ / 0-)

          A.  We won't win racists.

          B.  As you said, we are 44 years removed from the civil rights movement.  Most people in their 50s went to schools as they integrated.  In their 40s they were the first wave of truly integrated workplaces and under 40 we don't have any connection to the civil rights movement good or bad.  LET GO OF THE PAST.  A big part of Obama's ability to attract Southern voters is they don't feel like he is restarting the civil rights movement to which most Southerners no longer hold any connection.  

          C.  Instead of chalking up whites who are not pro-Obama as racist zero in on the issues that may be holding them back.  At the moment I think the economy is throwing alot of voters towards Obama because they care a lot less about God, guns and gays than they do about keeping up with their mortgages and social security.  And people in the middle value competence and Biden v Palin comes out in Obama's favor.

          Rant over.

          •  no need to get upset (0+ / 0-)

            i'm just stating the obvious that many here seem to overlook when the polls are up. just a few weeks ago when mccain was up many here were freaking out. im just trying to keep things realistic and in perspective. this race has ALWAYS been a close one and it will most likely finish that way. anyone who believes otherwise is like cheney saying we're going to be greeted as liberators.

            btw, did you know that older voters are some of the most reliable ones. whereas younger eligible voters are more likely not to vote or register.

            "LET GO OF THE PAST." Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it. you don't think there are young racists in michigan, pennsylvania, and other states who despise affirmative action and obama's comments about bitterness and typical white people?

            You said "We wont win racists." true, let's just hope there are fewer racists than we anticipate (especially younger ones).

            i grew up with classmates who often said the n-word (and im only 38). and that's just the tip of the iceberg. there's more underneath. we are naive to ignore the potential impact of stealth racism.

            just trying to keep it real.

            •  I'm not "predicting" based on polls (0+ / 0-)

              I didn't mean to seem disrespectful - this is not always a good medium for nuance, but I do get a bit short when people make sweeping statements based on a "feeling" about NC.  I understand that racism persists, but my "predictions" about Obama winning this state have nothing to do with my emotions, with "hopefulness," nor even with this specific poll.  They have to do with the empirical evidence I have as an NC resident and as someone who has dedicated a lot of time to studying the concrete, documented, verifiable structural changes in the state that give Obama an advantage going into November.

              One excellent source of data on the "new" North Carolina is the Center for the Study of the American South.  They put out detailed reports about electoral trends and changing demographics, and I keep up with those.  Not only do we have a "numbers advantage" this year, but the Obama campaign has worked very hard and extremely smart in the allocation of resources in NC.  Did you know that of NC's 100 counties, 14 counties generated just over 50% of our total vote count in the 2004 election?  Just one county, Wake (where Raleigh is), was responsible for almost 10% of NC's votes.  These population centers are even more disproportionately important this time around.  And the Obama campaign has been fierce in working to gain ground in these counties.  As noted upthread, Obama has a nearly 20% lead on McCain in Wake County right now - whereas in 2004, Bush won Wake by about 2%.

              So yes, racism persists.  But what I am saying is that there are many other factors.  We're not just dealing with ignorant hayseeds in this state.  There are, in fact, fewer and fewer "Old South" remnants in "new" North Carolina.

              and I grew up amongst racists, too.  My racist, redneck uncle in KY still uses the "n-word."  Here's what he said to my mom last fall:  "I know he's a n*@@er and a Muslim, but I'm still gonna have to vote for Obama.  He's the only one who gets it."  My racist, evangelical, "bitter," gun-toting, redneck uncle is a FERVENT Obama supporter.  Because there are bigger issues for him this year, like can he keep his farm.  So apparently, "racism" and Obama support are not mutually exclusive, either.

              I'm not saying that it will be easy.  But I am saying that it's far more "complicated" than "The South won't vote for a black man."  And I'm also saying that Obama's going to win in North Carolina - not based on a feeling, nor "kool-aid drinking," nor cheerleading.  My "prediction" is based on empiricism and on a dedication to making it happen in my state.

              McCain/Palin 08: More of the Same, But Worse

              by thisniss on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:50:53 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  i never said (0+ / 0-)

                ...the south won't vote for a black man. i said the south will not vote for obama significantly enough in 2008 to give him a southern state. if obama wins, i suspect he will pick up some southern states in 2012. and if he happens to win southern states in 2008 i will be pleasantly surprised. you can call it pessimism if you like, but i prefer to call it realistic.  

                you act as though detailed reports and polls have never been wrong. reports, polls, and even filled out registration forms don't vote, people do. the actual poll on november 4 will be the best indication of how much things have changed. in the end, i suspect things probably have changed in favor of the dems but not to the extent that i have read about here on dailykos and other places.

                my worry is michigan and pennsylvania. from what i've read, many of the gains in NC (15) and VA (13) have come from MI (17) and PA (21). if we swap these states with republicans, then the dems lose a net of 10. those new voters in your state have to be coming from somewhere and there not all first time registrants. be careful what you wish for.

                i don't doubt that the issue contains multiple factors and is more complicated than can be addressed here.

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