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View Diary: NC-Sen, NC-Pres: Obama leads by 2, Hagan by 8 (281 comments)

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    alnc

    but i don't trust southerners (lived most of my life in louisiana). currently living in west virginia. there are different types of democrats (reagan, liberal, progressive, etc.) and it's safe to say that many southern democrats are not liberal or progressive (especially the white ones). they are holdovers from the civil rights movement, those that have been voting republican for many years but never bothered to change their party affiliation. my father switched in 1980 and my mother in 1988.

    i just don't see obama winning a single southern state in 2008. maybe florida but i no longer consider it a southern state. and obama will be lucky to break 40% in WV (my prediction 41%, kerry got 43%). i know he has polled as high as 46 but i've been volunteering here and i just don't see those kinds of numbers.

    as for IN, no democrat has gotten more than 42% since 1992. i don't see that changing.

    victory lies in the west: colorado, new mexico, and perhaps nevada. throw in iowa and obama wins. im not counting him out, i just see a different path to victory.

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