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View Diary: NC-Sen, NC-Pres: Obama leads by 2, Hagan by 8 (281 comments)

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  •  predictions (0+ / 0-)

    if you are referring to my prediction, i don't care what you "predict" either. what if obama isn't up in mid-october in nc? so much could happen between now and nov 4 despite the early voting.

    i realize obama is much more organized than gore and kerry were, but that still doesn't change the fact that obama is a minority. and you can throw the primaries out the door. obama almost won texas but he'll be lucky to get 39% in the general.

    currently there is only one black in the senate (obama) and only 42 in house (less than 10%). are these numbers low because there aren't enough qualified blacks, or could it be some other reason?

    we are only 44 years removed from civil rights and racism is still formidable but in different ways. nowadays, one way racists can express themselves is at the polls.

    i sincerely hope you're right and i'm wrong. and i'll be glad to eat my words.

    •  Arghh!!! (0+ / 0-)

      A.  We won't win racists.

      B.  As you said, we are 44 years removed from the civil rights movement.  Most people in their 50s went to schools as they integrated.  In their 40s they were the first wave of truly integrated workplaces and under 40 we don't have any connection to the civil rights movement good or bad.  LET GO OF THE PAST.  A big part of Obama's ability to attract Southern voters is they don't feel like he is restarting the civil rights movement to which most Southerners no longer hold any connection.  

      C.  Instead of chalking up whites who are not pro-Obama as racist zero in on the issues that may be holding them back.  At the moment I think the economy is throwing alot of voters towards Obama because they care a lot less about God, guns and gays than they do about keeping up with their mortgages and social security.  And people in the middle value competence and Biden v Palin comes out in Obama's favor.

      Rant over.

      •  no need to get upset (0+ / 0-)

        i'm just stating the obvious that many here seem to overlook when the polls are up. just a few weeks ago when mccain was up many here were freaking out. im just trying to keep things realistic and in perspective. this race has ALWAYS been a close one and it will most likely finish that way. anyone who believes otherwise is like cheney saying we're going to be greeted as liberators.

        btw, did you know that older voters are some of the most reliable ones. whereas younger eligible voters are more likely not to vote or register.

        "LET GO OF THE PAST." Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it. you don't think there are young racists in michigan, pennsylvania, and other states who despise affirmative action and obama's comments about bitterness and typical white people?

        You said "We wont win racists." true, let's just hope there are fewer racists than we anticipate (especially younger ones).

        i grew up with classmates who often said the n-word (and im only 38). and that's just the tip of the iceberg. there's more underneath. we are naive to ignore the potential impact of stealth racism.

        just trying to keep it real.

        •  I'm not "predicting" based on polls (0+ / 0-)

          I didn't mean to seem disrespectful - this is not always a good medium for nuance, but I do get a bit short when people make sweeping statements based on a "feeling" about NC.  I understand that racism persists, but my "predictions" about Obama winning this state have nothing to do with my emotions, with "hopefulness," nor even with this specific poll.  They have to do with the empirical evidence I have as an NC resident and as someone who has dedicated a lot of time to studying the concrete, documented, verifiable structural changes in the state that give Obama an advantage going into November.

          One excellent source of data on the "new" North Carolina is the Center for the Study of the American South.  They put out detailed reports about electoral trends and changing demographics, and I keep up with those.  Not only do we have a "numbers advantage" this year, but the Obama campaign has worked very hard and extremely smart in the allocation of resources in NC.  Did you know that of NC's 100 counties, 14 counties generated just over 50% of our total vote count in the 2004 election?  Just one county, Wake (where Raleigh is), was responsible for almost 10% of NC's votes.  These population centers are even more disproportionately important this time around.  And the Obama campaign has been fierce in working to gain ground in these counties.  As noted upthread, Obama has a nearly 20% lead on McCain in Wake County right now - whereas in 2004, Bush won Wake by about 2%.

          So yes, racism persists.  But what I am saying is that there are many other factors.  We're not just dealing with ignorant hayseeds in this state.  There are, in fact, fewer and fewer "Old South" remnants in "new" North Carolina.

          and I grew up amongst racists, too.  My racist, redneck uncle in KY still uses the "n-word."  Here's what he said to my mom last fall:  "I know he's a n*@@er and a Muslim, but I'm still gonna have to vote for Obama.  He's the only one who gets it."  My racist, evangelical, "bitter," gun-toting, redneck uncle is a FERVENT Obama supporter.  Because there are bigger issues for him this year, like can he keep his farm.  So apparently, "racism" and Obama support are not mutually exclusive, either.

          I'm not saying that it will be easy.  But I am saying that it's far more "complicated" than "The South won't vote for a black man."  And I'm also saying that Obama's going to win in North Carolina - not based on a feeling, nor "kool-aid drinking," nor cheerleading.  My "prediction" is based on empiricism and on a dedication to making it happen in my state.

          McCain/Palin 08: More of the Same, But Worse

          by thisniss on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:50:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i never said (0+ / 0-)

            ...the south won't vote for a black man. i said the south will not vote for obama significantly enough in 2008 to give him a southern state. if obama wins, i suspect he will pick up some southern states in 2012. and if he happens to win southern states in 2008 i will be pleasantly surprised. you can call it pessimism if you like, but i prefer to call it realistic.  

            you act as though detailed reports and polls have never been wrong. reports, polls, and even filled out registration forms don't vote, people do. the actual poll on november 4 will be the best indication of how much things have changed. in the end, i suspect things probably have changed in favor of the dems but not to the extent that i have read about here on dailykos and other places.

            my worry is michigan and pennsylvania. from what i've read, many of the gains in NC (15) and VA (13) have come from MI (17) and PA (21). if we swap these states with republicans, then the dems lose a net of 10. those new voters in your state have to be coming from somewhere and there not all first time registrants. be careful what you wish for.

            i don't doubt that the issue contains multiple factors and is more complicated than can be addressed here.

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