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View Diary: On the road to 60 (114 comments)

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  •  I'm a little surprised Franken is behind (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9, Gray, WisVoter, Matt Z, MI Sooner

    in the land of The Body Ventura

    •  Me too. He'd be awesome in the Senate. (0+ / 0-)

      "No cake, while levees break." ERR

      by Ex Real Republican on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:22:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Minnesota polling has been interesting of late... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Gray, WisVoter, Sam I Am, Matt Z

      Polls this month have had Coleman up +4, +4, +1, +7. However, none of these polls has been taken since September 18, so we have no idea how this has moved in the last two weeks.

      Those same polls has Obama +2, +8, +2, 0. This is all rather bizarre. Obama is likely to win Minnesota handily. As I've pointed out before, he is well liked, winning the caucuses 2-1 over Clinton, and McCain is not, losing to Romney and getting only 22% of the vote (Romney got more than 40).

      Now, remember, this state hasn't been polled in two weeks. In that time, Obama has gone from -3 to +5 — a change of eight points. FiveThirtyEight says he'll win by 8, and that's with these weak polls.

      Putting these numbers together, Coleman outperforms McCain by 6, 12, 3, 7, or an average of 5.5. If Obama wins by 8, then the Franken-Coleman race should be a dead heat. Furthermore, the race has devolved in to mud-slinging, especially by Coleman. An Obama runaway here (likely imho) could lead to MN-Sen coming down to the wire.

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