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View Diary: FOLLOWING THE POLLS: The Thursday Edition (55 comments)

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  •  Am I the only one who sees this pattern? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Allogenes

    Obama gains after the debates.  McCain attacks and gains back.  

    Well, there are no more debates.  A little less than three weeks is an eternity.  Should we seriously consider what these slimy attacks are accomplishing and is Obama diffusing them enough?  

    Because there's a chance the swiftboating will be fierce in the last week or so.  

    Just asking.  I think we need to know if the track we're on is going to be enough to thwart the slime and the voter suppression.  It's the one thing the Republicans are still good at, and maybe better than ever.  

    •  there's no such pattern (6+ / 0-)

      the numbers are holding steady and there are regular fluctuations. In fact, Obama posted his highest margin in Pennsylvania today.

      People put too much credence in the ups and downs of the national polls. It's about states and state numbers are holding steady.

      •  At Least In The Tracking Polls.... (0+ / 0-)

        She has a point. Consider.

        1. DEBATE #1--On the day of the debate (9/25), Obama has a 3.3 point lead. It jumps to 7.0 points, then recedes to 6.3 points on the day of....
        1. VP DEBATE--Big Joe stretches the lead out to 8.5 points, which recedes back to 6.0 points on the day after...
        1. DEBATE #2--This time, Obama stretches the lead back out to 8.4 points. It had dropped back to 6.8 points by this morning.

        So, there does seem to be...for lack of a better term...a "debate" bounce effect taking place. It is appears to be very short lived (3-6 days) and then the bounce recedes within a point or so of its original destination.

        "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
        Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
        Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

        by Steve Singiser on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 08:19:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  No more debates but Obama (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser, Allogenes

      has a half hour of prime time at the end of the month. I don't see the pattern though.  

      I do see the typical up and downs in the national polls and predict major handwringing when the eventual tightening trend happens because people either have never paid attention to it in years past or they are experiencing selective amnesia.

      Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right? - Robert Orben

      by mentaldebris on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 07:26:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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