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View Diary: My Prediction: Kerry 310, Bush 228 (45 comments)

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  •  Geography and math (4.00)
    So if I read your prediction right this should be the EV Map.  But the count is Kerry 316 and Bush 222.

    vote in the mock Election at www.uselectionatlas.org

    Ask not what your country can do for you....

    by khirkhib on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 12:26:55 PM PDT

    •  Thanks for the correction (none)
      My policy is that anyone who corrects me accurately gets a "4" rating from me!

      I'd like to be able to claim that I was just suckering some poor freeper suckers with credit cards into betting the over/under on 310 electoral votes for Kerry...

      ...but the real truth is that I'm a product of the United States public school system, and therefore bad at basic math skills. I can call each state for ya, but I guess not add them up correctly!

      And to think... the gambler just forgot about Nevada, which was the 11th hour change in my draft predictions.

      Participate in the Authentic Journalism renaissance at Narco News

      by Al Giordano on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:08:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just upthread... (none)
        you were saying that you were counting on Maine's CD-2 going to Bush.  Your first calcuculation (310-228) is therefore still correct.
        •  The 310-228 Map (none)
          Got it, this is what the 310-228 map would look like.

          Ask not what your country can do for you....

          by khirkhib on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:15:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  great minds... (none)
            I see that Kos, on page one, offers essentially this map up this afternoon as reflecting his current predictions... The only differences being is that he gives all the Maine electoral votes to Kerry (I'm withholding one so far)...

            ...and that he gives Nevada to Bush (I'm calling Nevada for Kerry - let's call it una corazonada or a Mexican hunch, backed by some actual dynamics at play). So you are right in that my addition on my own tabulations was off by five electoral points... those of Nevada... I guess my actual call is 315-223 and I'm wavering on that one stray electoral vote in Maine... I'm sure I'll waver a few more times before all is voted and counted...

            ...but my basic gist is that if Pennsylvania stays solid blue, and nobody goes to sleep overconfidently, this thing is looking not bad right now, about 280 hours out.

            Participate in the Authentic Journalism renaissance at Narco News

            by Al Giordano on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:46:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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