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View Diary: Ohio Newspaper Poll: Obama takes lead for first time! (70 comments)

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  •  That the thing, If O wins Ohio (11+ / 0-)

    Then PA is irrevelant. I dont really understand what McCain is doing

    •  McCain is being McCain! (3+ / 0-)
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      mattman, cookiesandmilk, Ahianne

      In other words, being a self-destructive, stupid candidate!

    •  just my guess, but I think McCain has to win both (0+ / 0-)

      and since they are pretty similar in terms of demographics and media market, he probably figures that if he is able to break PA away from Sen. Obama, then Ohio will follow.

      "I don't have any need to show that I'm different than President Bush," Sen. John McCain

      by Dave from Oregon on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:29:58 AM PDT

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    •  Very simple.... (0+ / 0-)

      ...McCain knows he will win Ohio. Ohio is a red state. A black man has to flip a red state. He has the more difficult challenge. McCain has a good appeal to low information voters in this state with his "Joe the Plumber" campaign ("Joe -- you're rich!").

      Make no mistake: It is Obama that has the uphill climb here. Winning the Kerry states won't do it. He has to win some red states. The only red states I see going to him are Virginia and possibly New Mexico. That would give him the White House with 2 electoral votes. And this presumes he hangs onto Pennsylvania.

      Stop thinking landslide and start thinking epic battle for the soul of America. We have the right warrior but the opponents will not fight fair. They will throw the kitchen sink at him -- literally if they must.

      Tonight I'm going to party like it's 1929.

      by Bensdad on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:34:24 AM PDT

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      •  I agree with you, all we need is Colorado and (0+ / 0-)

        Virginia. I don't care about winning every battle ground state, we just need to win. We can go for a crushing victory of 40 states or more Reagan style after what will hopefully be a successful Obama admin.

      •  Excuse me, but... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ahianne, Vicky

        he's on the verge of losing in about 6-7 Bush states, and some of those margins aren't even close.

        There's no doubt we will fight hard to the end, because our experience shows that is necessary. But it is McCain with the severe uphill climb right now.

        I live in Ohio, and as I pointed out in the diary, the trend here is moving continuously in Obama's direction. You're right in that there is a lot of natural skepticism about Obama among many voters in our state, but the trends are showing that he is making great progress in overcoming that, while McCain is losing ground.

        The Republican Party: Reinventing government, the same way they reinvented New Orleans

        by QuestionableSanity on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 11:04:55 AM PDT

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        •  Close only counts.... (0+ / 0-)

 horseshoes, and with the exception of one poll out today (within margin of error), McCain has consistently polled better than Obama in Ohio. Not to mention the dirty tricks the Republicans are engaged in. These tricks work.  

          Tonight I'm going to party like it's 1929.

          by Bensdad on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 11:18:38 AM PDT

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      •  I'd be curious to know the basis for (1+ / 0-)
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        your statement about what you "see" red states doing. I usually admire what you write, but in this case I think you're being inordinately pessimistic.

        Nate Silver, proprietor of one of the most respected EC prognostication sites on the web, puts Obama at 70% or greater odds of victory in 27 states, which total 325 electoral votes.

        Nate's official EV projection is Obama 348, McCain 190. So I'm really interested in the basis on which you'd challenge that projection.

        And why do you think Barack might not hang on to PA? Every single reputable poll that has come out for PA in the past six weeks (several dozen of them) shows Obama ahead, usually by double digits.

        To John McCain, War is not a metaphor for Life; Life is a metaphor for War.

        by NWTerriD on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 11:20:56 AM PDT

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      •  Complete Nonsense (2+ / 0-)
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        Ahianne, Vicky

        Obama leads nationally by an average of 8 points at the moment, which translates into a landslide win, whether people like it or not.

        Aggregate polling has been extremely accurate the last two cycles, and at this point Barack is on track to comfortably flip Iowa (which you curiously don't list), New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and yes, Ohio, Florida, Missouri with Indiana, North Dakota, Montana and Georgia in play.

        By the way, Barack has come closer in polling in Georgia than McCain has come in any blue state. In fact, the average polling gap in Pennsylvania is the same as the gap in Mississippi (per RCP and Pollster). Campaigns that claim polling doesn't matter are usually campaigns that end up losing.

        The idea that McCain is going to win states like Ohio just because that's the way it went in the past, defies the political climate. He's out of money, his organization is virtually non-existent (especially compared to Obama's), his negative attacks have hurt him badly, and his supporters are demoralized.

        No one at this point can credibly claim that Barack is the one "that has the uphill climb here." In fact, the description by a pollster in a Colorado poll released last night was right on when he said: "This is downhill skiing uphill." McCain is going to lose.

    •  To make up for the loss of Bush states he has to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      win both OH and PA. He's running out of cash though so he's got to assume he'll win OH since it's all over anyway if he doesn't and therefore needs to work PA as the only way to win...of course there's no chance he'll win PA but I'm sure his team knows that anyway.

      "..tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call.."

      by sking1957 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:43:19 AM PDT

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    •  The map... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ahianne, bad bad man

      looks very, very good for our man.  Assuming Obama wins ever state where he's up by an average of ten or more points today, which would include Pennsylvania (see: RCP, 538, Pollster) but not Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico or Virginia, he's got a solid 255 electoral votes with 15 to go.

      That means Obama wins solely with the addition of:

      1. Florida (27); or
      1. Ohio (20); or
      1. Georgia (15); or
      1. North Carolina (15); or
      1. Virginia (13) + one of Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), West Virginia (5), New Hampshire (4), Montana (3) or North Dakota (3); or
      1. Indiana + (a) both Montana and North Dakota or (b) one of Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia or New Hampshire; or
      1. Missouri + (a) both Montana and North Dakota or (b) one of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia or New Hampshire; or
      1. Colorado + any two of Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Montana and North Dakota; or
      1. Nevada + (a) New Mexico + West Virginia or (b) New Hampshire + Montana + North Dakota; or
      1. Any four of New Mexico, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Montana or North Dakota.

      Please also note that McCain is up by ten or more points in states representing only 137 electoral votes as of today.

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