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View Diary: FL-21: Neck and neck, but early voting looms large (60 comments)

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  •  people in Florida (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lauramp, tzager

    are passionate about this election. Have you seen the lines? I live in FL-21 and I've never seen anything like this. It is amazing. People drive up to the precinct and are not intimidated by the lines. Most times they leave. Not this year.

    This passion will continue on Nov. 4. Some people wait just for the election day thrill. I wanted to do that, but didn't want to risk conflicts with my work schedule.

    Plus, the campaigns have an idea of just who has voted and can target the ones who have yet to vote to ensure they get to the polls. The Obama/Biden team is EXTREMELY aggressive with the calls. They bug the hell outta you to go vote.

    -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

    by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:41:32 PM PDT

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    •  yeah (2+ / 0-)
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      glassbeadgame, sulthernao

      my comment was confusing.  Of course go vote early, it is extremely important.  

      I was just warning about extrapolating early results to final results, which is dangerous as every early vote is one less person who is voting on election day, and we could just be more 'front-loaded' the the other side.

      •  front-loading? (0+ / 0-)

        I thought about that briefly, but the Obama people are very aggressive about finding voters. The precincts will be crowed Nov. 4 as well. Hopefully there will be less of a circus than is usually the case.

        -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

        by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:06:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  i hope so (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          no, actually I believe so, but I don't think there is any data to support it yet.

          In other words, if the state poll says Obama+3, but the early voting is breaking Obama+12, it is much more likely that the end result will be be closer to O+3, because that is what the data says about actual voter intent across the state.

          Similarly, an early tally that says O+10 in a state that is polling M+3, likely means that McCain still has a good chance to win the state, regardless of early voting, unless the early numbers discourage Republican turnout.

          The circus-reducing aspect is probably the most important, followed by the fact that banking early makes it harder to steal or disenfranchise.

          What good early voting numbers say is that it gives us a better chance at meeting our polling expectation, or exceeding it by few points, rather than coming up a few points short of it as in some prior elections (like Ohio 2004).  Certainly that can make the difference, so that is why early voting is important, but those changes are within the margin or error of the polling, and not indicated by some of these early voting numbers.

          •  Yes, but what can affect polling (0+ / 0-)

            is if Pollsters are forced to look at their model if they were throwing people out as "unlikely voters" when those people are actually voting.

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