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View Diary: MN-Sen Recount: Update v. 1.1 (261 comments)

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  •  9,848 Pres Undervotes (1+ / 0-)
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    homunq

    There were 9,848 Presidential undervotes and 34,678 Senate undervotes.

    I agree that most additional Senate undervotes are likely deliberate.

    Machine error can cause missed votes, but it apparently can add spurious votes.
    The hand inspection audits this week resulted in lost votes in some cases.

    I also don't think that .05% is the correct machine error rate, won't random machine errors generally cancel each other out?

    Although it IS a small sample, the recently counted 32 absentee ballots heavily favored Franken (he gained 11 votes), more so than the county at large.

    •  Good catch (1+ / 0-)
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      brein

      9,848 not 8900. That lowers the margin Franken needs without the absentees to 9-10%, still pretty high - it would mean the "good" populations would need to have been over 5 times as likely to make voting errors.

      As you say, the absentees should be strongly Franken, and if he (has the money to) get these counted his chances are good. But without them, it is feasible, but a bit of a stretch.

      0.053% is correct, it was something like 48 votes out of 97,000 in the 2006 audit. And you are right, these mostly cancel each other out; random fluctuations lead to a margin of something less than twice the square root of the number of random errors. That is what I was talking about with the standard deviation above.

      Opinions are like assholes. I spend way too much time looking at them on the internet.

      by homunq on Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 11:13:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  jmho (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        homunq, brein

        I don't think the 2006 audit numbers will necessarily hold for this election. All mid-term elections drop off from Pres elections, and this year MN increased its traditionally-high turn-out rate. Mid-term voters tend to be the hard-core committed voters, and the increased turn-out in Pres-election years are the newbies/intermittent voters (more susceptible to making mistakes?).

        IMPEACH "...so that no future president may infer that we have implicitly sanctioned what we have not explicitly condemned." John Conyers, 1974

        by rincewind on Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 12:29:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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