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View Diary: 11/1 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 51, McCain 44 (397 comments)

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  •  Was there a methodology change in Hotline? (0+ / 0-)

    We obviously don't know their daily samples, and I am too lazy to go back and figure them out, but to get a +3 change for both candidates in a 3-day tracker in one day, the sample that was removed must have had each candidate 9 points lower than the one that was added -- e.g. somehow 18% of voters went from undecided to decided in 3 days, while the averages suggest the undecided number has always been ~10%. My guess would be that they went back and tweaked their LV screen somehow, and adjusted the numbers for the last 2 days using that; but perhaps someone knows for sure?

    Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say... (from "Creatures of Light and Darkness", R. Zelazny)

    by SadEagle on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:13:27 AM PDT

    •  probably as they assigned undecideds (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SadEagle

      Obama/Biden 51%
      McCain/Palin 44%
      Undec 5%

      - Ind-decisive. McCain and Obama are now tied, 44-44%, among Indies. One week ago, in the survey completed 10/24, Obama led Indies 45-40%.

      - My Name Is Early. The number of respondents who have already voted in WH '08 has doubled over the last week. Nearly a quarter, 24%, have now early/absentee voted, compared to 12% a week ago. Among these voters, Obama today leads 52-47%.

      - The Big 10. Obama also continues to lead battleground state LVs. Among respondents in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI, he bests McCain by 15%. Last week, Obama led McCain 52-41% in these swing states.

      Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/29-31 by FD, surveyed 876 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 42%D, 36%R, 18%I. Look for full results in Monday's Latest Edition.

      Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates' images, party ID and demographics, "Refused" responses in the head-to-head question were assigned to Obama, McCain or undec.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:21:57 AM PDT

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