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View Diary: My predictions for 2008 (427 comments)

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  •  Hmmm... to me, the biggest question for weeks has (0+ / 0-)

    been, not the strength of O's ground game in any given state (or the likelihood of AA or youth turnout, etc) but the actual strength/weakness of MCCAIN's ground-game.  I've gone back and forth on whether I believe the steady stream of netroots- and other media accounts that the GOP ground is a total Potemkin village (see e.g. 538).  I mean we KNOW they never had a ground operation to speak of in IN or GA (or AZ!), which is why Surprises in those states are distinctly possible if things get landslidy enough.  I mean in OH and FL and other obvious battlegrounds.  There was some bizarre data in the last PEW poll (and one other, ABC?) about the relative rates of phone contact, suggesting that the GOP ground is not orders of magnitude less effective than the DEM.  But if Nate & Co are right about the empty GOP field offices all over the country, then OH is not going to be a problem.

    I guess we'll find out soon enough.

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