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View Diary: Down to the Wire with Proposition 8's Assault on Human Rights.   (259 comments)

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  •  No on 8 is going to win. (11+ / 0-)

    They've stepped up the ad campaign and are hammering home the message. The Clinton robocall is also working very well.  My parents were yes on 8 until yesterday and they flipped to no after discussing it with some friends of theirs.  That discussion was prompted by the Clinton robocall that my parents received yesterday morning.

    The swing vote on this proposition comes from working class and religious democrats who are going to vote for Obama but have doubts about Prop 8.  We'll get enough votes to defeat this proposition.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:23:51 AM PST

    •  It could DEFINITELY go either way. (0+ / 0-)

      The polls have it neck and neck, and there are many x-factors involved with polling a constitutional amendment on same-sex marriage. This is no time to be declaring victory.

      •  It's a prediction not a declaration. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Alternative rock with something to say:

        by khyber900 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:41:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sorry, wasn't meant to be a rebuke. (0+ / 0-)

          I'm just so nervous about this damn thing, and terrified that

          -Democrats in CA won't turn out

          -Black voters (unfortunately in favor of 8 on the aggregate) will turn out disproportionately

          - The Mormons and religious nutcases will drive the Yes-on-8 crowd to have higher engagement than the No crowd, further influencing turnout

          -The polling might overstate the opposition to 8 due to the empirically arguable existence of a sort of Bradley effect for gay rights

          Etc. I have never cared about any political race even half as much I do about Prop 8. I'm a nervous wreck.

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