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View Diary: 11/4 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 51, McCain 46 (FINAL) (202 comments)

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  •  Explain why the big difference (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pamelabrown, RenMin

    between this and the Gallup, Zogby, ABC/Wapo and CBS/NYT numbers.

    Previously this poll showed pretty much what these others did.

    Now there is a 5 point or bigger gap. That's a lot of voters.

    •  We'll see who's right! (0+ / 0-)

      But I'll take any of the numbers, thank you very much.

    •  not so big a difference (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Cedwyn

      First of all, wait for the returns... maybe it's Gallup, Zogby, ABC/Wapo and CBS/NYT that have to explain, not Hotline, Pew, NBC/WSJ and R2K (5-8) ;-)

      Aside from that, look at the Obama number (a tight 50-54). The McCain numbers are 42-46.

      Mix and match and you get any poll you want.

      Further, all the polls picked up late tightening, then even later widening. The polls did their job.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:29:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The difference is largely in McCain's number (0+ / 0-)

      There seems to be pretty broad agreement (within a couple of points in most polls) on where Obama stands. The striking differences seem to be in McCain's number, with some recent polls actually showing him below 40 percent.

      My uneducated guess is that this may be a function of how hard the pollsters press undecided voters to express a preference for one candidate or the other. You've got all these unenthusiastic Republicans who, if pressed, will grudgingly allow that they lean toward McCain, if they absolutely have to choose. That's my guess, anyway.

      •  the question is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chris Coleridge

        will they show? Will they stand in line? (that's "stand on line" in various parts of the country and "queue" in various parts of the world).

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:45:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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