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View Diary: Rumor: Kerry up by 9 points in the lastest CBS/NYT FL poll (153 comments)

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  •  Polls Schmolls (4.00)
    My supersized female logic doesn't think the Florida polls have been accurate so far.  So now faced with a poll which has begun to show the true face of Florida the pollsters are shocked.  They obviously lack my crazy logic skills.

    In Florida:

    • Felon List thrown out
    • Small group who voted for Bush regretting it
    • Bush support less than in was in 2000
    • Kerry support more than Gore support in 2000
    • More Kerry people thinking election is important than Bush people (excluding both psycho core groups)
    • Dems registered more people than Repubs (also large increases in Indies and No Parties)
    • Increased availability of voting due to early voting (larger voter turnout usually favors the Dems)
    • Many Dems here are still pissed about 2000, while the Repubs (since they won) don't have the "anger motivation" working for them
    • I know people who never voted before who registered just to vote out Bush yet haven't met any that registered just to keep him.  So I think more of the newly registered Dems will show up to vote than the newly registered Repubs.

    So how is Florida not polling more for Kerry?  Obviously the polls are wrong.  I'll place my money on Kerry to take Florida by at least 5%.  And I firmly believe whoever takes Florida will take the presidency.

    Thank goodness they didn't ask Bush to spell sovereign.

    by Liberalpalooza on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 09:21:46 AM PDT

    •  Great logic! (none)
      My supersized female logic agrees with your supersized femal logic and raises you 6 additional battleground states, with that same logic, plus a suprise state or two.

      Can you say LANDSLIDE!

    •  And don't forget the Cubans (none)
      There have been good indications that that Republican bloc has been fractured.

      November 2: We're hacking up a hairball.

      by perro amarillo on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 09:53:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And then there was Nader, not now... (none)
      ... to the same extent, since he doesn't have a legitimate base this time, since the Greens aren't behind him... That's crucial.

      "I don't do quagmires, and my boss doesn't do nuance."

      by SteinL on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 10:07:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Supersize me (none)
      In addition to the cuban voters swing someone mentioned as well, this supersize female logic notes that FL has a significant number of Arab-Americans who swing would be enough to swing the election a few percentage points.

      And then you include the fact that there have been no good polls because of the hurricaines. So all this time, they've been saying it's close based on polling of conservative northern FL. Throw in the south, though, and all of a sudden you have a different race.

      Let's hope it's outside the margin of Jeb-error. Can you imagine the Thanksgiving dinner with Bush blaming Jeb for his stupendous loss?

    •  Are *we* a (none)
      "Psycho core group"?


      "The identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the Nation's confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law." Bush v. Gore

      by DeanorBust on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 10:14:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One reply to answer them all. :D (none)
        Are we in a psycho core group?  I like to think so.  At least that's what the voices tell me.  :D

        And yes I forgot the Cubans and they will not support Bush as much as they did.  That'll add just more sweetness to our victory.

        As for the Arabs I'm not sure how they normally vote so I don't know if supporting a Dem would be a switch from 2000.

        Ah yes the hurricanes.  Can't forget them.  Currently the house across the street and the one next door are being repaired as I type this.  And FEMA has rejected first request (everyone I know applies, was rejected, resubmitted and was oked).  I think a good campaign slogan here would be "And roofs for everyone!!!"

        Thank goodness they didn't ask Bush to spell sovereign.

        by Liberalpalooza on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 10:37:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Arab Vote In Florida (none)
          I've found that sending this article to Bush-lovers pisses them off like nothing else:


          Orlando, Florida - 11/17/00) Of the 100,000 Muslim Americans in Florida, at least 60,000 have voted in this year's election. As estimated in a telephone survey of 350 Muslim Floridians, 91% have voted for Gov. Bush, 8% for Ralph Nader, and 1% for Vice President Al Gore. At least half of Muslim voters live in I-4 Corridor, the least committed group of voters in the entire state. In an exclusive exit poll of Florida Muslims, 91% of those polled indicated that they had voted for George W. Bush.

          "Political pundits have been slow in acknowledging the crucial, even decisive, role of the Muslim vote in Florida," says Dr. Sami Al-Arian, a professor of engineering and a Florida resident. He, however, hopes, that "once the dust settles and serious political analysis begins, the importance of those groups that have voted enbloc will become apparent to all."

          "When people will look at the role of trade unions such as AFL-CIO, civil rights organizations such NAACP, ethnic groups such as Cubans and religions communities such as Jews and Muslims, they will realize the importance of the Muslim vote as well", adds, Dr. Qazi, President of the American Muslim Alliance, the largest Muslim grassroots organization in Florida.

          "In this yearís election, not only the 7 million Muslim have crossed the rubicon, we have played a decisive role in the formation of a new national coalition of voters", observes, Dr. Agha Saeed, chairman of the American Muslim Political Coordination Council, the umbrella organization that had endorsed Gov. Bush and urged American Muslims to vote for him. "It won't be long before political analysts realize that Muslim voters have played a historic role."

          Media Begins to Recognize the importance of Muslim Vote in Florida

          In a story published in the ëMetrowest Dailyí on November 11, 2000, the Staff writer reports:

          "A record number of Muslim first-time voters may have tipped the presidential election in George Bush's favor, according to a poll released yesterday by the Massachusetts chapter of the American Muslim Alliance.

          About 91 percent of Muslims in Florida cast ballots for Bush as part of an alliance endorsed voting bloc, said chapter chairman Tahir Ali, of Westborough. "The Muslims in America did have an impact in the presidential election this year." Ali said during an interview at the Islamic Center in Wayland.

          "If we had voted like we did in previous elections, guess who would be president right now? Al Gore." This was the first time the alliance, in conjunction with the American

          Muslim Political Coordinating Council, has encouraged its members to vote for the same presidential candidate. "In the past," Ali added. "We would vote every which way and cancel each other out."

          The alliance also says Bush has been more willing to meet with Muslims and hear their concerns.

          This site was last updated on Monday, April 02, 2001

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