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View Diary: Rumor: Kerry up by 9 points in the lastest CBS/NYT FL poll (153 comments)

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  •  Um, if true it's probably legit. (2.60)
    I seriously doubt they would withold a poll result that would get widespread play unless they had a good reason too.  There are lots of legit reasons why they could think the poll data is balloney that have nothing to do with the results.

    Guys, everyday I read dkos i see about 10 dairies arguing that x poll is complete bunk.  Strangely enough these diaries only cover polls that are bad for kerry.

    If you are so sure of everything, go bet on www.tradesports.com

    Tristan

    •  I don't bet online (none)
      but I wish I had gone to Vegas after the Iowa caucus.

      Emancipate yourself from Mental Slavery, No one but ourselves can free our Minds.

      by TustonDAZ on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 09:37:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  While I don't want to reject (none)
      the idea that some organizations would withhold polling data that doesn't conform to their desired outcome, in general polls reflect the sampling methodology and statistical model of the pollster -- and if their methods are solid, their poll results will be very close to the actual results next week.  Steve Soto at The Left Coaster has done excellent work demonstrating why Gallup's numbers are suspect.  

      Many of the pollsters this year have indicated that they cannot tell if voter participation models will differ this year from that of the past few election cycles.  If a big change occurs, all of the polls could be off by far more than the MOE.  As readers of polls, we would be wise to look at the trend of each different pollster (don't combine the numbers from the various pollsters) -- that is more likely to indicate if the race is breaking one way or the other, and a much better guide the results of a single poll at a single point in time.    

    •  I stand toake some cash... (none)
      ...if Kerry wins. I was able to get in at world sports exchange at 3-2 odds.

      I put my money where my mouth is, as well as giving to Kerry and other Dems that are running.

    •  Sure (none)
      There are outlier polls.  Outlier polls which favor Bush get published.  Now there is an outlier poll which favors Kerry which they won't publish.  It's the double standard which is troubling.
    •  Sniff, sniff, hmmm (2.50)
      Not one to make any accusations but

      I seriously doubt they would withold a poll result that would get widespread play unless they had a good reason too.

      What is this, the Britney Speares school of election analysis?

      There are lots of legit reasons why they could think the poll data is balloney that have nothing to do with the results.

      Such as?

      Guys, everyday I read dkos i see about 10 dairies arguing that x poll is complete bunk.

      The difference is that people are responding to polls actually published.

      Strangely enough these diaries only cover polls that are bad for kerry.

      Why is that strange?  You're not lost are you?

      If you are so sure of everything, go bet on www.tradesports.com

      Uh oh.  This looks like a dead giveaway to me.

    •  You would be right (none)
      if the poll showed Kerry up 15 or something. But 4 is totally realistic and in line with some other recent data. So it true, this almost has to be a weak-spine punt.

      The part of this story that bugs me, though, is that it came via someone at the Kerry campaign, who leaked it to Jerome Armstrong or one of our other blog-friends. That smells a lot like manufactured momentum to me. On the other hand, if CBS doesn't deny the story today sometime, I'd begin to believe it's true.

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