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View Diary: MN-Sen: And still closing (183 comments)

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  •  What matters is (0+ / 0-)

    Franken's margin over Coleman in those counties, especially with Barkley in the mix.

    Franken had a 14% lead in Hennepin, an 18% lead in Ramsey, and a 23% lead in St. Louis. None of those numbers are good for Coleman.

    © sardonyx; all rights reserved

    by sardonyx on Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 07:01:56 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  but Coleman has some leads too... (0+ / 0-)

      If you analyze the data at the county level and use Franken's and Coleman's vote shares for the undervote in each county, you only find a 522 vote gain for Franken in the whole state.  So almost half of all of the undervotes would have to become countable in the recount.  My analysis up above at the precinct level looks much better for Franken -- requiring only 15% of the undervote to make up the current deficit.

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