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View Diary: Stochastic Democracy vs FiveThirtyEight (39 comments)

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  •  Once again, Maybe (0+ / 0-)

    The Georgia thing: Nate did make a statement that if thinks a Chamblis victory was the most likely outcome(He assigned probabilities 50/40/10 for Chambliss/Runoff/Martin )

    He never formally tested it, but he put it in his final senate sheet, so I'd say including it is fair.

    As for West Virginia:

    You might be right. I've actually just started working with someone on studying the effect of campaign spending on polls. (We're using the surprisingly detailed campaign financial statements). The guy I'm working with is quite a bit smarter than me, so I'm sure we'll come up with something good.

    Fail that, I'm sure Nate will take a look at it too.

    With that sort of model, we'll be able to look at What-Ifs more effectively.

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