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View Diary: Stochastic Democracy vs FiveThirtyEight (39 comments)

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  •  You'll have to explain that one (0+ / 0-)

    While it is irrelevant to any assessment of the accuracy of his projection(simply calculating the mean error does that pretty well), it is quite valid as a critique to his methodology.

    He calculated his projection estimate by calculating a weighted average of several "polls"(one of which included the regression estimate), and then assuming some mean regression.

    I am making the argument that the reason his presidential forecasts displayed such high Kurtosis, was because he gave the regression estimates too high a weight.

    We could discuss the assertion if you wish, but to declare that discussion of methodology is irrelevant seems strange.

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