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View Diary: Research 2000 tracking poll accuracy (106 comments)

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  •  I loved having access to the R2K internals (0+ / 0-)

    throughout.  It was my go to source for picking up trends.

    One nitpick:  Why do you say that R2K overestimated older voters?  R2K estimated 22% over 60.  Actual was 16% over 65.  So, if 6% were 60-64, then R2K would have been right on target.  

    I don't see any basis to say that 6% is too high for that 5-year group. 1.2%/year is significantly lower than any other age group shown on the actual turnout chart.  Obviously, there are fewer people alive at that age, but still, I don't think 1.2% allocation per year for that five year span is high.  45-64 year olds, for instance, turned out at an allocation of 1.85% per year.

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