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View Diary: MN-Sen Events v. 9.0 Recount Open Thread (181 comments)

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  •  And Minneapolis is still at 10 percent. (1+ / 0-)
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    rincewind

    The rest of Hennepin (which is purplish-red) is in at something like 75%.

    I'd say it's a lot of upside there for Franken, but it's really upside for Coleman to challenge lots and lots of ballots.  (And then future upside when all the frivolous challenges Coleman made in Minneapolis are tossed in the canvass.)

    (St. Paul is in at a higher rate than the rest of Ramsey, but the rest of Ramsey bluish purple.)

    Yes, Santa Claus, there is a Virginia. And it went Democratic.

    by Anarchofascist on Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 12:17:17 PM PST

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    •  Check this logic (0+ / 0-)

      Currently, in aggregate, Coleman has lost 256 votes compared to 181 lost for Franken.

      Coleman has challenged 436 ballots compared to 450 challenges by Franken.

      Therefore, Franken challenges are more likely to subtract a Coleman vote than are Coleman challenges likely to subtract a Franken vote. If mostly all the challenges are thrown out, Coleman benefits.

      •  That would be my assumption (0+ / 0-)

        if I didn't have more granular data and I thought both candidates were equally likely to gain or lose votes during the recount, indeed.

        However, there's ample data to suggest that Franken has more upside in the recount.  And there's county and precinct level data to get a better idea of exactly where and what the challenges are.

        Yes, Santa Claus, there is a Virginia. And it went Democratic.

        by Anarchofascist on Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 12:54:50 PM PST

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