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View Diary: Total votes at 130.6 million, Obama at 68.95M - Updated x2 (208 comments)

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  •  Well, in 2004, there were 7.4 million votes for (1+ / 0-)
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    president in NY.  So far, the AP is reporting only 7.0 million this year.  It is logical to assume that the total number of voters in 2008 will at least equal the number in 2004, since turnout is up almost 6 percent nationwide.

    •  Not necessarily. Some states did experience (0+ / 0-)

      lower turnout this year as opposed to 2004.

      •  None that have reported final results have (2+ / 0-)
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        vlajos, SadEagle

        except for OK, and their 2008 vote is 99.93% of 2004's vote.

        •  Here are the ones with less so far (2+ / 0-)
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          SadEagle, wishingwell

          Maine - down 0.35%
          NY - down 4.77%
          Ohio (with updates) - down 0.32% (some counties are still not final, and the ones that became final generally had a 5% - 6% increase)
          Oklahome - down 0.07%
          South Dakota - down 1.07%
          Wisconsin - down 0.33%
          West Virginia - down 4.06% (anyone know what the hell happened in WV)?

          So it's likely NY will end up +1-2%, or +500k or so.

          •  Those aren't final though (1+ / 0-)
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            except for OK.

          •  I wonder where there was lower turnout than 04 (0+ / 0-)

            if they were mostly Republicans or right leaning Independents who showed up to vote for Bush but this time did not like McCain or Palin or both?
            So they just stayed home rather than vote for any Democrat.

          •  How the heck can you project from -4% to +2%? (0+ / 0-)

            There simply is not enough ballots remaining for such a large increase.  I'm sorry CB but some of your estimates, be it final total pop vote or those dealing with specific states, are just too fanciful.  NY will be a net decrease from '04 not increase and the same is true of other states.

            •  Here is a good place to start is deciding whether (0+ / 0-)

              states have increased or decreased their turnout from '04


              •  His numbers in a bunch of states are low (0+ / 0-)

                For example, he has 2,300,000 in Colorado, when if you go to the county sites, they already have a total of 2,381,395, and Denver isn't final.

                I loaded his numbers a week or so ago, so not sure which have changed, but for final counts or counts where I went to county sites for totals, he is low in his estimates by over 400k. Just adding his NY remaining of 500k to my totals gets to his 130.7 million, and that doesn't include estimated votes left in OH, NJ, PA, CA, potentially CO, etc. I think 131 million is a lock, and depending on whether WI is even remotely complete, 131.5 million is not out of reach.

                For the NY change, I'd look at some of the comments previously. I've observed a similar 6% bump in OH as they go from preliminary to final.

              •  This site hasn't down it's homework (1+ / 0-)
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                Jeff in CA

                Here are states where their total estimate is less than actual reported votes (if you look at county reporting) and the amounts. The first number is total votes I have, the second is how much the site has underestimated the count:

                AR - 1,089,892, (14,892)
                AK - 323,820, (3,820)
                CO - 2,381,395, (81,395)
                DC - 265,853, (2,444)
                GA - 3,929,499, (5,196)
                HI - 453,568, (410)
                IA - 1,536,820, (1,820)
                IL - 5,543,616, (143,616)
                IN - 2,751,524, (1,524)
                KS - 1,232,817, (22,817)
                MO - 2,925,173, (173)
                MS - 1,289,324, (69,324)
                NJ - 3,786,731, (86,731)
                NM - 830,158, (158)
                OR - 1,827,241, (2,241)
                PA - 5,973,518, (23,518)
                UT - 950,995, (50,995)
                WA - 3,039,852, (13,667)
                WI - 2,972,540, (2,540)
                WV - 713,568, (3,568)

                The following are states that appear to be final where the totals on the site are overestimated:

                AL - 181 overestimate
                ID - 4,968 overestimate
                LA - 22 overestimate
                MD - 189 overestimate
                MI - 48,404 overestimate
                MT - 8,233 overestimate
                NC - 14,211 overestimate
                ND - 3,232 overestimate
                NV - 32,152 overestimate
                RI - 229 overestimate
                TX - 22,205 overestimate
                WY - 22 overestimate

                Adding these up, there are almost 391k net votes not included in the estimates that are known. Add those to the projected total, and you get 131.1 million assuming the other states are missing the votes indicated in the summary, or about another 900k votes (with a chunk in CA and NY).

                I think there are also votes still to count in PA, NJ, and OH based on what is certified and what is not and the increase I've seen for counties when they go from the 11/5 report to certified. Time will tell, but I think 131 million is a lock, and 132 million is still possible (although maybe only a 20% probability).

                •  I think CA is very close to being done (0+ / 0-)

                  San Diego has less than 1000 still to count and Orange was below 5000 and LA hasn't updated this week. I wouldn't expect more than 50,000-75,000 votes still to come in Cali (and oddly enough Humboldt county may be a hefty chunk of that).

                  NY is still the biggest chunk to come, and probably the only big chunk to come.  Franklin and Lucas in Ohio and Philly, Delaware, Bucks? in PA will produce some chunk of votes.

                  Illinois probably won't produce many more votes, especially if you've been using the county level reports (AP messed up Kane and Lake something awful).  BTW, I really dislike the separate city/county votes some places use.  I get Chicago, but Rock Island? really? Why?

                  NJ and WI I know not.  

                  I'd put the odds of 132 million at less than 1%

                  Lastly, I was going to declare Oklahoma the absolute worst election web site purely for the background used on the election site, but I see they've changed it.  

                  •  I thought so, too (0+ / 0-)

                    And then another 66k came in for Obama and Orange still isn't done not including Humboldt. A chunk of that was from LA. So probably close, but it still keeps coming in.

                    FYI, with the extra CA and some NY and NJ, I'm now at 130.5 million. So 131 is a done deal, 132 is a stretch, but if we went and counted all the non-votes or over votes as "voter turnout", we'd get there no problem.

      •  That's the issue (0+ / 0-)

        The news media reports that without saying some states aren't final.

    •  Thanks. Did some digging... (0+ / 0-)

      ... and while I can't find good stats, in the two close congressional districts in Western and Central NY, the absentee rate seems to be around 5-7.5%. Now, some of those are doubtlessly included in the tallies, and NYC and areas with more military personnel may be different, but that does work out in the 350K-525K magnitude, though only if most aren't included already. Still, we'll know the final tally soon enough.

      Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say... (from "Creatures of Light and Darkness", R. Zelazny)

      by SadEagle on Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 06:06:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Almost all of the NY totals (1+ / 0-)
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        have a date of 11/4 at 11:00 pm or very early on 11/5, so doubtful any absentee are including in those numbers.

        •  Good point. (0+ / 0-)

          I checked Chemung county, and they didn't update their results since the election day, even though they had to count the absentees to resolve NY-29.

          Steuben has actually updated yesterday, though, with official results.

          Onondaga seems recent, too (the 20th)

          Erie is also reporting 0% absentees counting (kudos to them for having the stat).

          My home county, Tompkins actually has everything but blanks reported: "(All results final, though accurate Blank, Void and Write Ins (scattering) are not posted in these reports. Check back Monday (12/1) for official final numbers.)".
          I think they updated it recently --- turn out in my precinct is up to 81%, with the city up to solid 74% (though IV-1 is still disappointing 44%). County-wide, it's 0.79/42761, up from 0.77/42680 in 2004 (but Tompkins county is special).

          Monroe's election results website is down.

          NYC doesn't seem to post anything?

          Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say... (from "Creatures of Light and Darkness", R. Zelazny)

          by SadEagle on Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 07:36:05 AM PST

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          •  More on absentee counts... (0+ / 0-)

            Though they don't have 2008 results up, NYC has detailed stats on ballot kinds for 2004:

            Basically, about 7.24% of counted ballots that year required some sort of special handling; a lot of these were actually affidavit ballots and not absentees.

            So I guess the magnitude does make sense, after all.
            I wonder if with growth of early voting getting election outcomes the same night will be a thing of the past?

            Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say... (from "Creatures of Light and Darkness", R. Zelazny)

            by SadEagle on Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 07:40:56 AM PST

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        •  Suffolk County (1+ / 0-)
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          out on Long Island seems to have added absentee votes to their total--about 45000 votes

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