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View Diary: Total votes at 130.6 million, Obama at 68.95M - Updated x2 (208 comments)

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  •  Here are the ones with less so far (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SadEagle, wishingwell

    Maine - down 0.35%
    NY - down 4.77%
    Ohio (with updates) - down 0.32% (some counties are still not final, and the ones that became final generally had a 5% - 6% increase)
    Oklahome - down 0.07%
    South Dakota - down 1.07%
    Wisconsin - down 0.33%
    West Virginia - down 4.06% (anyone know what the hell happened in WV)?

    So it's likely NY will end up +1-2%, or +500k or so.

    •  Those aren't final though (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vlajos

      except for OK.

    •  I wonder where there was lower turnout than 04 (0+ / 0-)

      if they were mostly Republicans or right leaning Independents who showed up to vote for Bush but this time did not like McCain or Palin or both?
      So they just stayed home rather than vote for any Democrat.

    •  How the heck can you project from -4% to +2%? (0+ / 0-)

      There simply is not enough ballots remaining for such a large increase.  I'm sorry CB but some of your estimates, be it final total pop vote or those dealing with specific states, are just too fanciful.  NY will be a net decrease from '04 not increase and the same is true of other states.

      •  Here is a good place to start is deciding whether (0+ / 0-)

        states have increased or decreased their turnout from '04

        http://elections.gmu.edu/...

        •  His numbers in a bunch of states are low (0+ / 0-)

          For example, he has 2,300,000 in Colorado, when if you go to the county sites, they already have a total of 2,381,395, and Denver isn't final.

          I loaded his numbers a week or so ago, so not sure which have changed, but for final counts or counts where I went to county sites for totals, he is low in his estimates by over 400k. Just adding his NY remaining of 500k to my totals gets to his 130.7 million, and that doesn't include estimated votes left in OH, NJ, PA, CA, potentially CO, etc. I think 131 million is a lock, and depending on whether WI is even remotely complete, 131.5 million is not out of reach.

          For the NY change, I'd look at some of the comments previously. I've observed a similar 6% bump in OH as they go from preliminary to final.

        •  This site hasn't down it's homework (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jeff in CA

          Here are states where their total estimate is less than actual reported votes (if you look at county reporting) and the amounts. The first number is total votes I have, the second is how much the site has underestimated the count:

          AR - 1,089,892, (14,892)
          AK - 323,820, (3,820)
          CO - 2,381,395, (81,395)
          DC - 265,853, (2,444)
          GA - 3,929,499, (5,196)
          HI - 453,568, (410)
          IA - 1,536,820, (1,820)
          IL - 5,543,616, (143,616)
          IN - 2,751,524, (1,524)
          KS - 1,232,817, (22,817)
          MO - 2,925,173, (173)
          MS - 1,289,324, (69,324)
          NJ - 3,786,731, (86,731)
          NM - 830,158, (158)
          OR - 1,827,241, (2,241)
          PA - 5,973,518, (23,518)
          UT - 950,995, (50,995)
          WA - 3,039,852, (13,667)
          WI - 2,972,540, (2,540)
          WV - 713,568, (3,568)

          The following are states that appear to be final where the totals on the site are overestimated:

          AL - 181 overestimate
          ID - 4,968 overestimate
          LA - 22 overestimate
          MD - 189 overestimate
          MI - 48,404 overestimate
          MT - 8,233 overestimate
          NC - 14,211 overestimate
          ND - 3,232 overestimate
          NV - 32,152 overestimate
          RI - 229 overestimate
          TX - 22,205 overestimate
          WY - 22 overestimate

          Adding these up, there are almost 391k net votes not included in the estimates that are known. Add those to the projected total, and you get 131.1 million assuming the other states are missing the votes indicated in the summary, or about another 900k votes (with a chunk in CA and NY).

          I think there are also votes still to count in PA, NJ, and OH based on what is certified and what is not and the increase I've seen for counties when they go from the 11/5 report to certified. Time will tell, but I think 131 million is a lock, and 132 million is still possible (although maybe only a 20% probability).

          •  I think CA is very close to being done (0+ / 0-)

            San Diego has less than 1000 still to count and Orange was below 5000 and LA hasn't updated this week. I wouldn't expect more than 50,000-75,000 votes still to come in Cali (and oddly enough Humboldt county may be a hefty chunk of that).

            NY is still the biggest chunk to come, and probably the only big chunk to come.  Franklin and Lucas in Ohio and Philly, Delaware, Bucks? in PA will produce some chunk of votes.

            Illinois probably won't produce many more votes, especially if you've been using the county level reports (AP messed up Kane and Lake something awful).  BTW, I really dislike the separate city/county votes some places use.  I get Chicago, but Rock Island? really? Why?

            NJ and WI I know not.  

            I'd put the odds of 132 million at less than 1%

            Lastly, I was going to declare Oklahoma the absolute worst election web site purely for the background used on the election site, but I see they've changed it.  

            •  I thought so, too (0+ / 0-)

              And then another 66k came in for Obama and Orange still isn't done not including Humboldt. A chunk of that was from LA. So probably close, but it still keeps coming in.

              FYI, with the extra CA and some NY and NJ, I'm now at 130.5 million. So 131 is a done deal, 132 is a stretch, but if we went and counted all the non-votes or over votes as "voter turnout", we'd get there no problem.

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