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View Diary: Total votes at 130.6 million, Obama at 68.95M - Updated x2 (208 comments)

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  •  This site hasn't down it's homework (1+ / 0-)
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    Jeff in CA

    Here are states where their total estimate is less than actual reported votes (if you look at county reporting) and the amounts. The first number is total votes I have, the second is how much the site has underestimated the count:

    AR - 1,089,892, (14,892)
    AK - 323,820, (3,820)
    CO - 2,381,395, (81,395)
    DC - 265,853, (2,444)
    GA - 3,929,499, (5,196)
    HI - 453,568, (410)
    IA - 1,536,820, (1,820)
    IL - 5,543,616, (143,616)
    IN - 2,751,524, (1,524)
    KS - 1,232,817, (22,817)
    MO - 2,925,173, (173)
    MS - 1,289,324, (69,324)
    NJ - 3,786,731, (86,731)
    NM - 830,158, (158)
    OR - 1,827,241, (2,241)
    PA - 5,973,518, (23,518)
    UT - 950,995, (50,995)
    WA - 3,039,852, (13,667)
    WI - 2,972,540, (2,540)
    WV - 713,568, (3,568)

    The following are states that appear to be final where the totals on the site are overestimated:

    AL - 181 overestimate
    ID - 4,968 overestimate
    LA - 22 overestimate
    MD - 189 overestimate
    MI - 48,404 overestimate
    MT - 8,233 overestimate
    NC - 14,211 overestimate
    ND - 3,232 overestimate
    NV - 32,152 overestimate
    RI - 229 overestimate
    TX - 22,205 overestimate
    WY - 22 overestimate

    Adding these up, there are almost 391k net votes not included in the estimates that are known. Add those to the projected total, and you get 131.1 million assuming the other states are missing the votes indicated in the summary, or about another 900k votes (with a chunk in CA and NY).

    I think there are also votes still to count in PA, NJ, and OH based on what is certified and what is not and the increase I've seen for counties when they go from the 11/5 report to certified. Time will tell, but I think 131 million is a lock, and 132 million is still possible (although maybe only a 20% probability).

    •  I think CA is very close to being done (0+ / 0-)

      San Diego has less than 1000 still to count and Orange was below 5000 and LA hasn't updated this week. I wouldn't expect more than 50,000-75,000 votes still to come in Cali (and oddly enough Humboldt county may be a hefty chunk of that).

      NY is still the biggest chunk to come, and probably the only big chunk to come.  Franklin and Lucas in Ohio and Philly, Delaware, Bucks? in PA will produce some chunk of votes.

      Illinois probably won't produce many more votes, especially if you've been using the county level reports (AP messed up Kane and Lake something awful).  BTW, I really dislike the separate city/county votes some places use.  I get Chicago, but Rock Island? really? Why?

      NJ and WI I know not.  

      I'd put the odds of 132 million at less than 1%

      Lastly, I was going to declare Oklahoma the absolute worst election web site purely for the background used on the election site, but I see they've changed it.  

      •  I thought so, too (0+ / 0-)

        And then another 66k came in for Obama and Orange still isn't done not including Humboldt. A chunk of that was from LA. So probably close, but it still keeps coming in.

        FYI, with the extra CA and some NY and NJ, I'm now at 130.5 million. So 131 is a done deal, 132 is a stretch, but if we went and counted all the non-votes or over votes as "voter turnout", we'd get there no problem.

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