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View Diary: Second-to-Last Electoral College Analysis (171 comments)

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  •  I think that (4.00)
    massive turnout is more likely than not to pad Kerry's popular vote total than to add states--but truly high turnout (like high 70s in a given state) could swing VA, MO, NV, WV, AR, CO and maybe even AZ and NC.

    I think massive turnout on our side is certainly a good possibility, but it's more about the margin--I do think the Repub turnout will be up also. I basically think that my above analysis holds if Dems can even hold the 2000 ratios--39-36-25, b/c Kerry will win more independents than Gore did.

    One thing that I think is wholly possible, by the way, is to see the numbers jump tremendously amongst self-identified indies. I do think that many young people and new voters may not be as quick to identify with either party se, but I expect the bulk of them to be Kerry voters.

    •  You don't need (none)
      a turnout in the 70s to swing Va- I don't know about the other states, but for Virginia- given the differentials of 2000 this seems too high-or are you strictly basing it on polling data from this year?
    •  Hate to disagree (none)
      I don't see the vital energy among GOPers needed for big turnout. I don't think fear is a great motivator. On the contrary, over time it is a debilitator. But what do I, or any of us, know. Prognostication is a dicey business at best. It will be interesting to see what the exit polls say, though.

      The greatest blessing bestowed on a people is the absence of ignorance in public office. - Confucius

      by cavanaghjam on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 01:03:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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