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View Diary: Second-to-Last Electoral College Analysis (171 comments)

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  •  Wisconsin (4.00)
    You're right that 3d Parties are a key factor here. badnarik's got TV up in the Northern and Western markets, and lots of radio spots painting Bush as a bigspending liberal, and unreliable on firearms rights.

    Latest trend in Madison is Cobb folks swapping to Kerry in return for votes for the Green Candidate for District Attorney, Sally Styx, who's in a 2 way race versus a mediocre Dem. incumbent. This may also be happening in the Northwest, where Green mike Miles is taking on Dave Obey for a House seat with no Republican.

    Meanwhile Tommy Thompson's effort for Bush has been lacadaisical, he's putting in more time for GOP candidates for the Legislature.

    Kerry by 45,000 votes.

    Your Blunder War is showing.

    by ben masel on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 11:54:59 PM PDT

    •  Strategy & Tactics (none)
      Meanwhile Tommy Thompson's effort for Bush has been lacadaisical, he's putting in more time for GOP candidates for the Legislature.

      That's probably a pretty smart allocation of resources for the GOP, actually; I honestly don't think that the Republicans have any real chance of taking the states of the old NFC Central Division (well, except possibly Florida, but that's not really what I was aiming for).

    •  Texas (4.00)
      I think in local races in Texas, we may see some surprising wins for Libertarian candidates where they are running only against a Republican.

      Voters seem very angry about the Republican redistricting fiasco and are voting ANTI republican in those races.

      Turnout in Travis County for early voting has been very high, 30% I think as of Thursday and it ended yesterday evening.  (Travis County votes heavily democratic).

      Whatever the presidential outcome, I think in local races you will see the "Dean" impact of taking back democracy in local races.  I think the huge voter registration drive will help take back a lot of local offices and state offices, even in non-swing states.

      Is anyone looking at those statistics, post election?  I would be very interested to see some reporting on that.

      thanks for your analysis.  Very informative and reality based.  

      •  Early voting totals in central TX (none)
        On last night's news, KXAN (NBC-36, Austin) claimed that 33% of registered voters in both Travis (includes Austin, for the political junkies out there who don't know every county in TX) and Williamson Counties voted early.

        I'm happy to say I'm in the second class, and had no trouble getting in shortly before the polls closed Monday night.

        Many of the judicial races on my ballot had only a Republican or a Republican and Libertarian -- it will be interesting to see how those turn out Tuesday night.

        I've been seeing plenty of ads for the state representative districts (three in particular) heating up for the past two weeks -- more and more negative, and definitely tied to redistricting (and thus to Tom Delay).

        Here's hoping we look back on Matt's predictions and wonder "why was he such a pessimist?"

        •  Final Travis County early voting numbers (none)
          Burnt Orange Report has them here. 37%. He's predicting 70-75% in Travis County. Sure hope everyone in CD 10 knows about Sadun.

          If we get numbers like that nationally, it would be jaw-dropping. If I'm remembering all the historic numbers right. Never can remember if people talk about 'percentage of registered voters' in the final numbers, or 'percentage of eligible voters.'

      •  about the Libs in Tx (none)
        Just for the record, I voted for the Libs on the ballot in opposition to the Reps that were on the ticket.

        I understand that the Libs will probably not win but the point I was making is that there are votes against the reps... Just as my vote for Kerry won't turn Texas blue, but helps show my opposition to Bush.

        One thing I noticed, sadly, on my ballot was that for judges in my area there were no Dems running against the Reps. Very disappointing in this insanely conservative area.

        •  Your vote won't turn Texas blue, (none)
          but it will show up in the popular vote, which is just as important, as far as justifying the EV vote for Kerry. Afterall, we all know how we felt last time with Gore REALLY winning the election, especially the popular vote. It's important for Kerry to win both.

          As kos said in the diary on the front page:

          There are two battles being fought Tuesday. The battle for the electoral vote -- which will decide the next president, and the battle for the popular vote -- which will confer legitimacy on the victor.
          And a lot of the popular vote will come from all of us in the red states that really wish our state would go blue!
    •  Lukewarm Tommy (none)
      Tommy's a loyal Republican, but Bush hasn't backed him in pursuing his priorities at HHS and the political shop caused him some major embarrassment on the prescription drug benefit deception.  And remember, Tommy really wanted the Transportation post instead of HHS.

      So, I'm not surprised at all that Tommy isn't going all out for Bush.

      Hard pounding, gentlemen. Let's see who pounds the longest. --Wellington at Waterloo.

      by Maturin on Sat Oct 30, 2004 at 08:30:35 AM PDT

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      •  Transportation (none)
        Kerry could do worse than offering Tommy Secretary of Transportation. He's a big passenger rail fan, and would help lining up the Republican support for a major rail buildout.

        Your Blunder War is showing.

        by ben masel on Sat Oct 30, 2004 at 12:57:41 PM PDT

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        •  Interesting Thought. (none)
          Kerry will want at least one Republican in his cabinet.  But bringing back anyone associated with Bush will be hard to swallow.  Besides, there are many better candidates, like Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), or any other moderate Republican senator who could be replaced by a Dem, therefore a two-fer (or, adding a Dem takeover of the Senate, a three-fer).  

          Mission Misunderestimated

          by Bob Love on Sat Oct 30, 2004 at 07:20:08 PM PDT

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          •  There is ALWAYS one cabinet member of the other... (none)
    It's tradition.  Even Bush did it (Secertary of Transportation Norman Mineta).  The fact that Bush gave that job to a Democrat must really annoy Tommy Thompson, heh.
        •  Guilty Admission: Tommy's Not That Bad (none)
          I think Tommy wants to get out for a bit and make some money.  Then challenge Kohl.

          Tommy has many flaws, but he is a GOP'er who doesn't drink the neo-con or fundamentalist Kool-Aid. I've always been happy with his openness to mass transit and rail.  He's always been a supporter of investing in universities, technology, and R&D.  I was happy, but not surprised, when he came out big for medical diplomacy as a "soft power" inititative.  Too bad it was squashed by the White House.  If Kerry is detemined to have a Republican in the cabinet, you could do worse than Tommy.

          However, I think the best thing for the country would not be to keep decent Republicans in the Administration.  If there is going to be a battle to the direction of the Republican party, you have to want people like Tommy in that fight...even if you are a Democrat.  I'd rather have an opponent I can respect than one who terrifies me while being ridiculous at the same time.

          Hard pounding, gentlemen. Let's see who pounds the longest. --Wellington at Waterloo.

          by Maturin on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 12:02:38 AM PDT

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          •  Not Senator in '06, maybe Gov again (none)
            according to my well placed sources.

            Your Blunder War is showing.

            by ben masel on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 04:08:34 AM PST

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            •  Not a good decision for him... (none)
              Maybe on a bring back the good old days platform, but lots of jeopardy for him.  The budget shortfall that was incubating when he left office would be an issue. Plus, the state GOP has moved to his right since he went to Washington.  After what they did to Panzer, I'm not sure Gard and Fitzgerald will be interested in following Tommy's lead.

              Hard pounding, gentlemen. Let's see who pounds the longest. --Wellington at Waterloo.

              by Maturin on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 06:33:12 AM PST

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              •  Gard could be gone as Speaker (none)
                His heavyhanded armtwisting has alienated many of the Assembly Republicans. If they lose more than a couple seats, he'll be blamed, and booted from the speaker slot. In this scenario, the most likely successor is Al Ott, currently Chair of the Agriculture Committee. Ott's a genuine nice guy, more likely to focus on policy than partisanship.

                Disclaimer: I worked with Ott on getting a hemp bill thru his committee. Gard refused to schedule it for a floor vote.

                Your Blunder War is showing.

                by ben masel on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 06:55:01 AM PST

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