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View Diary: Second-to-Last Electoral College Analysis (171 comments)

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  •  FL, IA, NM (none)
    I'm right there with you except on these three. I think voter fraud will put FL in Bush's column, like it did in 2000, and that he takes IA and NM. But it doesn't matter since we still have NH, OH, and WI. I've called it 272-266 for Kerry for over a week now, and I haven't seen anything to change my mind.

    The overall good news is that there's a lot more ways for Kerry to win here than Bush. We don't need to take all of the close states -- we just need OH and one or two others. There's still a chance that we could run the table and win all nine of the close contests, and I'll be extremely pleased to see that happen. But it doesn't have to happen, so I'm sleeping ok at night again. :-)

    Like sharpened knives through chicken McNuggets.

    by rusty on Sat Oct 30, 2004 at 03:18:55 AM PDT

    •  I agree about FL. (none)
      We will witness unprecidented fraud, and even greater idiocy. Is it possible to revoke statehood? If so, I think Florida should be left to become its own little banana republic.

      To any Dem Floridians: I don't know how you can stand it.

    •  Tend to agree with (none)
      you and IA, NM, WI and FL.  Although flipping a coin on IA might be as good at this point as looking at the polls.

      I spent some time looking at all the safe blue/red states - current polls compared with 2000 results to see if there were any blue or red shifts that could indicate similar movements in the "swing" states.  In general, time seems to have stopped at 2000.  It looks to me as if the "red states" are not redder or the "blue states" bluer.  MA and NH will be more blue and  TN will be more red for obvious reasons.  NC may be less red, but not by much.  WA, OR and PA (none of which were ever in the "swing" state category as far as I was concerned) will "bluer" but that seems more to be a function of the Nader factor in 2000 than decreasing support for GWB.  CO, AZ and NV will be less red mostly for the same reason.  Expect that MN will be closer than what the 2000 results suggest.

      Given the very long lines at many poll locations in 2000, the problems in FL and the questions about new automated voting systems, the EV numbers may not reflect anything other than lack of voter confidence in being able to cast their ballots on election.

      As one of those oddballs who remains convinced that Jeb! managed to "disappear" a Gore margin of at least two points (above and beyond what we saw with the butterfly ballot and voter disenfranchisement), Kerry's poll numbers in FL don't seem to be robust enough, or even as robust as Gore's were, to overcome whatever disadvantage Jeb! has had four years to build into their system.  

      There are far fewer undecideds this time than in 2000, and it would probably be helpful to study the last state polls in 2000 and compare them with actual results.  On the national polls, three in 2000 indicated a tie (a much more accurate result in my mind than Zogby calling it for Gore by 2).  In all three (DEM Corps, Fox and Harris), Gore and Bush gained equally from either undecideds (Fox) or shifts from Nader (Harris) or Nader and Buchanan (DEM Corps).

      OH -- I'm not comforted by the poll numbers as much as others are.  OTOH the reports of a million new registered DEMs in OH suggests that the polls could be way off and Kerry could win by 9-10 points.  OH will be either a pitched fork battle on the ground or a blow-out.

      I'm reasonably confident that K/E gets the popular vote, if all the ballots are counted in all the states.  Otherwise, I remain anxious.    

      •  I concur (none)
        I concur that it's likely that Jeb has all sorts of ways to deliver Florida.  I see a Kerry win without Florida, so long as JFK takes Ohio and at least one or two of the swing states.

        But this time, with so many ppl watching, I'm hoping the Jebbites bungle enough of their fraudulent capers that it's clear to the world that 1) Bush = Fraud = Threat to Democracy, 2) far more Floridians voted for Kerry than Bush (whatever the outcome of the lawsuits and EC), 3) heads need to roll, starting at the top, using RICO racketeering laws, and 4) Federal Election Law needs to be much, much tougher on voter intimidation, ballot tampering and similar anti-American activities.  

        In fact, the Patriot Act should be applied to election fraud, and perpetrators and their superiors should be declared Enemy Combatants and sent to Gitmo for oh, say, eternity.

        Mission Misunderestimated

        by Bob Love on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 06:07:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, but can't we (none)
          just get rid of the Patriot Act and close that Gitmo torture chamber?  They may deserve to go there, but that would make us just like them.  We can do better, I hope.
          •  ok, well, uh ... (none)
            You're right, of course; I was just basking in a moment of retributional venality.  Yeah, what u say, + we shd give Gitmo back to Cuba; didn't the contract expire in 1999?

            Mission Misunderestimated

            by Bob Love on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 09:46:15 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

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