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View Diary: Second-to-Last Electoral College Analysis (171 comments)

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  •  Ruy Teixeira is recommending this! (none)
    Way to go, Matt! Here's what Ruy is saying about your work on Emerging Democratic Majority:
    [Most poll-driven analysts don't] incorporate the wide range of historical and campaign data that are relevant to thinking through a state's probable electoral outcome this year. For that, we have to fall back on that old stand-by: the educated judgement of an actual person sifting through all available evidence.

    Here's a good example of what I have in mind. "mattb25" over the Daily Kos... I strongly recommend you read his piece in full. He does an excellent job of combining a critical analysis of available polling data with reasonable judgements about the state of the campaign and underlying political trends and history in a given state. The result is a solid assessment that takes you a lot farther than any purely-poll-driven EV analysis possibly can.

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