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View Diary: Breaking!!! Zogby cell poll has Kerry over Bush 15 points!!! (115 comments)

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  •  uhm (3.00)
    does this really mean anything?  

    "Among 18-29 year-olds, Kerry leads the President by 14 points--55% to 41% in our current daily tracking poll--virtually identical to these results."

    As far as i can tell, the only way these results help us is if the cell-phone crowd was disproportionately for Kerry, but these results seem to indicate they followed in step with the land-phone crowd of similar ages.

    •  Meaning (none)
      "does this really mean anything?"

      It's another thing that can make Republicans feel bad. ;)

      •  lol, true (none)
        very true.  but i think the point many here are missing is that it isn't the percent difference between Kerry and Bush in this report that is critical but that difference compared to what they get from regular land-line phone polling.  And the report seems to indicate, if i am reading it correctly, that the results are identical.  Therefore they can say their land-line polling is effectively capturing the cell-phone crowd.
        •  right, that's true, but (3.00)
          The real question is whether the pollsters are undercounting the percentage of young voters who will vote.  That is, they are assuming a normal (low) participation rate.  The real question then is whether the (very strongly pro-Kerry) young voters, cell phone only or no, will get out in higher numbers than usual.

          By the way this poll, as far as I can tell, didn't differentiate between cell phone only people and people who might also have a landline.  There is no reason to suspect that the mere fact that someone has a land telephone line or not makes one more or less likely to vote for Kerry.

          -- Stu

        •  Stupid me (none)
          I thought it was good news too but thanks to Joel K and company,  I now know it's really just a poke in the eye.  
    •  Cellphone Poll Does Matter (none)
      Many of these young people are not getting counted in polls because they don't fit into likely voters. But they WILL be counted in the Nov. 2 election. This is a great margin.
      •  Yeah but (none)
        Zogby's big conclusion is that 18-29 year olds vote the same way regardless of whether they are polled via a landline or via text message.  As long as the traditional polls weight for demographic breakdown correctly, which is a separate discussion, this poll by Zogby suggests that the traditional polling method is OK.  Cell phone users don't vote differently than landline users.
        •  Sample size (none)
          But how many 18-29s are actually included in polls? Very often it's tiny. And I bet if you broke it down you'd find most were 24-29...with 18-23 very low. It's the college age group that's so underpolled.
          •  And they are motivated this time. (none)
            In my area, most college students are registered. And a definite majority are pro-Kerry. Out of a half dozen college students I can think of off the top of my head, one is undecided. The rest are all Kerry supporters.

            George Bush is Nehemiah Scudder

            by jenrose on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 03:22:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  the results help (none) long as the cell phone users are going more for Kerry.  It means there are however many tens of thousands of kids voting 55% for Kerry that no one has counted yet.  It doesn't matter if it lines up with the rest of their age group, it wouldn't even matter if they were more Bush than the rest of their age group as long as they were more Kerry than Bush -- because they haven't been counted in any of the polls thus far.  So they're sort of this extra, bonus, category of voters -- provided their turnout mirrors their support.

      Same thing with overseas voters.  No one's polled them, no one even knows how many there are, it's a wild card in a tight race, so if they go more for Kerry it's a good thing.

      American military intervention is like American cinema. Really high production values, but the script sucks.

      by jibeaux on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 06:52:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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