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View Diary: PA-Sen: Specter shows weakness in primary and general (97 comments)

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  •  2008 registration #'s kill Specter (1+ / 0-)
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    Adam B

    I really can't see how he wins the nomination against a strong conservative contender, Toomey or anyone else... I'm not sure why he hasn't already announced retirement, to be honest... But if you look at registration patterns - do we really think a lot of new Dems will re-register as Republicans? Anyone left as a registered R after the 2008 primary and general is likely to be a conservative - most moderate Republicans have flipped. There aren't a lot of newcomers to Pennsylvania (and those that do come here are likely to move to cities and register D). There also isn't a ton of mobility that would trigger re-registration. I would assume that 2008 #'s don't change ahead of 2010, and Specter loses a chunk of the vote that saved him in 2004. And if it's a competitive D primary, who would re-register as a R to nominate Specter?

    •  true (0+ / 0-)
      I'm not sure about the details of registration and elegibility to vote in primaries in Pennsylvania, but one thing to do could be to target moderate Republicans with a campaign to reregister them as Independents or Democrats.

      The success rate wouldn't be high, but it would shear moderate votes from Specter in a matchup with Toomey.  And a few thousand voters that don't show up for Specter might be more than enough.

      We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.

      by killjoy on Fri Dec 12, 2008 at 10:46:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Exactly... (0+ / 0-)

      All PA Dems need to look at is:
      4.1mil to 2.9mil...

      That is the number of registered Pennsylvanians as democrats to those as republicans.  If they put up a good candidate, then this election is O-V-E-R.

    •  eh (0+ / 0-)

      there's plenty of cross-over votes for Specter. It's why he's still a Senator, and not Hoeffel.

      Bah HUMBUG! I pop in when I feel like it(0.12, -3.33)

      by terrypinder on Fri Dec 12, 2008 at 11:58:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Newcomer here (0+ / 0-)

      just moved in from New York, and both wife and I will be registering as D's here. still learning the landscape here politically. curious to see how Obama's strength in 2008 translates into the Senate race in 2010. one would think that from a pure registration standpoint, Specter should be very worried.

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