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View Diary: NH-Sen: ARG poll (yeah, yeah) shows Gregg in danger against Hodes (92 comments)

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  •  It is useless for predicting what will happen in (0+ / 0-)


    It may give useful information about the current situation.  But much can happen in two years.  My point is that any current polls cannot possibly predict what the case will be in two years.

    Remember how, at the beginning of 2008, polls told us that the two candidates in the presidential election would be Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani?

    That's all I'm saying.

    "Everybody has won, and all must have prizes." - Lewis Carroll

    by Dave1955 on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 07:54:26 PM PST

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    •  Polls Are Useless for Predictions (0+ / 0-)

      They're tools of assessment, not modes of clarvoyance.  

      And comparing a state poll for Senate with national primary polls for president is like comparing apples and thermostats.  

      "Dignified people, without a whimsical streak, almost never offer fresh insights, in economics or anywhere else." Paul Krugman

      by Dana Houle on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 08:08:27 PM PST

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      •  You're missing the point entirely. (0+ / 0-)

        There are too many variables for this, or any, poll to have any real significance now.

        Sure, it may give an indication of a trend, but they're meaningless now.  If, in two years, Obama's policies have brought us out of recession, Democrats will be unstoppable.  If, on the other hand, the economic situation has gotten even worse, Republicans might make a comeback.  A poll in January 2009 is completely unable to predict an incumbent's potential vulnerability in November 2010.

        How many polls in January 2005 showed Democrats regaining control of the Senate in November 2006?  What were George Allen's favorability ratings in January 2005?  

        "Everybody has won, and all must have prizes." - Lewis Carroll

        by Dave1955 on Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 11:39:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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