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View Diary: Hamas: War criminals all. (196 comments)

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  •  I Think They've Very Different Situations... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fcvaguy, DemocraticLuntz

    ...in terms of political environment.  Hezbollah is a fundamentalist sectarian movement within an extremely heterogeneous political environment.  In Gaza, you really only have Fatah and Hamas.  In Lebanon, pretty much no Sunni, Druze or Christians vote for Hezbollah (although they have Christian allies politically), and they compete for Shiite votes among secular parties and Amal.  Hizbollah is, other than the southern Beirut, mostly a regional party, and people in the rest of Lebanon are highly pissed that they provoked the Israeli response that brought suffering on the entire country.  

    Thus, it's a geometric dynamic in Lebanon.  With Hamas, it's pretty much either them or Fatah.  I'm not arguing that it's going to be Hamas over Fatah.  I'm just not convinced that it won't be, and I'm certainly not convinced that the fallout will be similar to what I expect will be the fallout with Hizbollah.  

    "Dignified people, without a whimsical streak, almost never offer fresh insights, in economics or anywhere else." Paul Krugman

    by Dana Houle on Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 07:48:50 PM PST

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    •  Also, Of Course, Hezbollah Has the Only Militia.. (0+ / 0-)

      ...in Lebanon, which both gives them strength but also causes fear and resentment.  Both Fatah and Hamas have armed factions.  

      "Dignified people, without a whimsical streak, almost never offer fresh insights, in economics or anywhere else." Paul Krugman

      by Dana Houle on Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 07:50:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hamas is less religious, but it's membership (0+ / 0-)

        cut across a spectrum of lines. The organization itself is less cohesive than Hezbollah. As soon as the fighting dies down, there will be internal struggle with Hamas, as the various factions fight each other. Same as it ever was.

        Meanwhile, Israel can try to negotiate with whatever remnant wants to step up to the plate, and it will execerbate the internal tensions with Hamas even more.

        At some point, the PA will sweep in, and take over Gaza in a heartbeat, with some more violence, but not as much as we saw before. And that will be the end of Hamas.

        The sad part is, Israel probably could have accomplished the breaking up of Hamas without the military action, if they had embraced negotiations long ago.

        •  We'll See (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          shpilk

          I'm not convinced, but I'm not in a position to posit any counterargument with which I have much confidence.  

          "Dignified people, without a whimsical streak, almost never offer fresh insights, in economics or anywhere else." Paul Krugman

          by Dana Houle on Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 08:04:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  We shall see, indeed. (0+ / 0-)

            Obama will attempt to get this taken care of quickly, and I think events will prove me right.

            I'll admit I am more hopeful with the PA in charge there can be some peace and cooperation. Hopefully it's not all just wishful thinking.

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