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View Diary: 2010 Outlook: Michigan U.S. House Races (19 comments)

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  •  Glen Anderson (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PerfectStormer, MenhentheDem

    lives in Westland, not Livonia. He's not going to run for a seat that's likely to be squeezed out in redistricting. Neither is Andy Dillon. Especially since they both very likely to be easily reelected staying right where they are.

    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895

    by Cordelia Lear on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 03:40:56 PM PST

    •  No, Dillon is term limited (0+ / 0-)

      and if he wins, the Democrats will just squeeze out anther district. They aren't going to eliminate a Democratic District. And I said Represents Livonia, not lives in livonia.

      •  Dillon is not term limited (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PerfectStormer, MenhentheDem

        he filled out someone else's term from the '04 election. He first full term was '06. He can run again in '10.

        This district is going to be squeezed a re-shaped substantially regardless of what party holds the seat in '10.

        "The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895

        by Cordelia Lear on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 03:54:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  A Small Quibble... (0+ / 0-)

      >>He's not going to run for a seat that's likely to be squeezed out in redistricting. <<</p>

      The 11th, while Gerrymandered all to hell, is actually one of the more rational Michigan CDs and not one that I'd say would get eliminated in a redistricting.  I'd say Michigan's 4th Congressional District might be a better candidate.  Its been talked about for awhile.  

      "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." - Thomas Paine

      by Mister Gloom on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 04:33:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If there is a dem in that seat after (0+ / 0-)

        the '10 election (which I think is a long, long shot at best) then a Dem held legislature is going to have a real job figuring out what to do.

        Look around it. How can you rearrange this area and keep another Dem seat if we're down one after the reapportionment? No where to go in Wayne County. No where to go in Monroe County. No where to go in Washtenaw County and into Jackson. No where to go in Oakland County.

        Debbie's going to want John's seat and Andy is going to want his father's. Which one do you tell to go fish for a relative new comer to the Congressional scene?

        "The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895

        by Cordelia Lear on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 04:55:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your telling me... (0+ / 0-)

          ...we can't screw Dave Camp at redistricting?  Even though Camp's seat has lost population too?  Man...I hate it when other people are right.  

          On another note Debbie may well have a fight on her hands to get John's seat.  Fortunately they don't have to worry about the Wayne & Monroe County crowds, but Ann Arbor folk will probably get a heavy weight to run (Liz Brater, as a for instance, is term-limited and really doesn't have anywhere to go...) and I expect they'll take a shot at getting someone in that seat.  

          "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." - Thomas Paine

          by Mister Gloom on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 05:02:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Debbie (0+ / 0-)

            is well aware of what she needs to do in Ann Arbor. She's worked hard there going back from the last redistricting.

            I'd suggest that Liz or Alma might find plenty of support for Debbie. Don't forget that John won a seat from hometown favorite Lynn Rivers in '02. Not everyone in Washtenaw supported Lynn.

            "The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895

            by Cordelia Lear on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 05:32:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

              ...I was pretty young then but my impression of that primary was always that John won it primarily by getting Wayne and Monroe (bearing in mind that I've lived in either Wayne or Washtenaw counties for all but 1 year of my life) more so than Ann Arbor.  I'll freely admit to being wrong, since Ann Arbor has a lot more aspects to it than people generally notice (i.e. the deeply progressive college crowd, which people not familiar with the area consider to be the regions norm...which it isn't really).  

              "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." - Thomas Paine

              by Mister Gloom on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 05:36:15 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

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