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View Diary: ND-Sen: Dorgan surprisingly strong versus Hoeven (109 comments)

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  •  ND Democrat right here! (13+ / 0-)

    I live in Fargo, ND and grew up in the state.  I recently moved back to Fargo and find that alot of other people have also moved back because of the strong economy and suburban growth in the Eastern portion of the state.  I was also an intern for Senator Dorgan in D.C. in 2003.  He's a remarkable person and very well liked in the state, even amongst conservatives. (except for the far right of course)  

    He's excellent at connecting with people when he visits and the consensus is that he has done a remarkable job at bringing home money for the state.  I was not surprised at these results and I can't wait to work for the Dorgan campaign if Hoeven runs.  If he doesn't, it won't matter then, Dorgan will win by a wide margin as usual.

    Thanks for all the ND love Kos!

    •  I'm wondering (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joeyk22, RethinkEverything, Vladislaw

      How are Kent Conrad's approvals do you know? Like Dodd, I think he was involved in that Countrywide mortgage scandal, but it doesnt seem like it hasnt affected him as much as it has Dodd.

      •  Conrad (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, pademocrat, sherijr, Vladislaw

        I don't know about recent polling but he won reelection in 2006 unopposed and that same year he had a 74% approval rating I believe.  See link below.

        As for the mortgage scandal it has gotten zero play here locally even though the local paper is conservative in nature.  People have kind of already made their minds up about our 3 elected Congressman and they seem to like them all because they are consistent and honest in people's minds.  

        http://www.mahalo.com/...

      •  Strong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sherijr

        and his early support of Obama is partly why Obama made an appearance at our state convention last April in Grand Forks.

        It was great.

      •  Its my sense... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        that Conrad has wethered this storm much better than Dodd has.  

        He immediately gave the amount of money he allegedly recieved as a result of the interest rate cut to charity.  Dodd's problems stem more from his chairmanship of the banking committee where he would have a serious conflict of interest.  I don't see any lasting issues here.  

        Conrad ain't going anywhere...

        "The man who sees absolutes where others see nuances and shades of meaning is either a prophet or a quack." --Keith Olbermann -4.50, -1.90

        by Ab2kgj on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 10:49:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  not much of a problem... except... (0+ / 0-)

        ... some will grouch about him going to the beach for the weekend when he ought to be "Coming home" to ND for the weekend!!  ha!

        The Christian Right is Neither...

        by Prairie Logic on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 11:06:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm real curious about the apparent shift in (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pager, Uberbah

      Mountrail and Ward Counties. Mountrail's economy is largely tied to oil, whereas Ward County is the home of Minot Air Force Base, one of the nation's premier nuclear weapons facilities.

      It would seem that both would be overwhelmingly Republican, but the trend suggests a real shift.

      "If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich." JFK - January 20, 1961

      by rontun on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 09:24:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmmm (6+ / 0-)

        Do you think it could be an influx of younger oil workers in that region?  And perhaps the air force base recognizes the work that elected Democrats did in opposition to any base closings?   It would be interesting to look at counties where military bases are located all over the country and see if there were any trends this year.  Perhaps it would refute the notion amongst Republicans that military men and women are more conservative?

        •  It's certainly something worth studying. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          whitewidow, Pager, pademocrat

          I know that McCain did not do as well as Bush in Laramie County (Cheyenne), Wyoming where there is an Air Force Base, and in Sarpy County, Nebraska, home of Offutt Air Force Base, McCain trailed Bush's 2004 vote by over 11 percent.

          "If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich." JFK - January 20, 1961

          by rontun on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 09:40:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think that's a fantastic idea (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sherijr

          I'll get the team to look at military counties to see if any trends appear.

          •  Ward County for Minot (0+ / 0-)

            North Central area

            Grand Forks County for Grand Forks

            but they both have college populations as well so that will be hard.

            I would say the main reason is the mass quantity of National Guard in ND.  Many of them have been activated 1-3 times.  That leaves a bad taste in many mouths...hence the Obama vote.

            Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

            by jalapeno on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 10:37:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Obama would have carried ND (0+ / 0-)

            if the democratic party had put a legitimate challenger against Hoeven for governor.

            Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

            by jalapeno on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 10:38:25 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Good luck on that one... (0+ / 0-)

              we have no bench to draw from.  Roger Johnson is the only elected Democrat statewide(aside from the congressional dems, who aren't going anywhere) and we just can't get anyone else into office.  

              Believe me.  We're trying.  People in ND just have problems voting for Democrats...

              Besides all of that, I think Obama lost the state because he pulled out in reaction to Sarah Palin's nomination.  He had about 100 staffers in the state and then after the convention they scrambled over to Michigan and Wisconsin.  

              Mark my words, he will carry the state in 2012.

              "The man who sees absolutes where others see nuances and shades of meaning is either a prophet or a quack." --Keith Olbermann -4.50, -1.90

              by Ab2kgj on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 10:54:52 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  people in ND don't have trouble voting for dems. (0+ / 0-)

                its money and money talks.

                with the Obama enthusiasm, dems should have mopped up in ND.  If they couldn't clean house with Obama at the top of the ticket, there should be a housecleaning in the ND Dem party.

                Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

                by jalapeno on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 10:57:24 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  there's often (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  pademocrat

                  a big difference in willingness to vote for Dems in state or congressional offices and willingess to vote for Dens for president.

                  Look at Arkansas and West Virginia, and pre-2008 North Dakota.

                  •  its all about message and issues. (0+ / 0-)

                    what was the state democratic message in your state in 2008?

                    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

                    by jalapeno on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 11:32:36 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  It will be difficult to field a Dem... (0+ / 0-)

                    ...to compete against Hoeven. He's generally well liked throughout NoDak. Plus, there is a very large older (and more conservative) population in the state. I grew up in the Red River Valley north of Fargo and it's a real mix of viewpoints there. My mother is VERY conservative, yet members of my father's family are for the most part Dems. Many farmers still blame Jimmy Carter for the grain embargo back in the 1970s which, of course, meant a financial hit for them when they were trying to open markets to Russia, etc.

                    Palin at the Repub Convention: "It was like watching Gidget address the Reichstag" - Matt Taibbi (thanks to deepfish for the quote)

                    by WobegonGal on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 12:00:01 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  No (0+ / 0-)

              Obama would have carried ND if he had visited the Western half of the state (Bismarck, Minot, Williston, Dickinson) and promised not to take their guns, oil, and coal away.

              The candidate for governor had nothing to do with it.

              -- North Dakota Democrat

              by foo fighter on Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 11:57:15 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  I'm also in Fargo (0+ / 0-)

      ...and I've said for a long time that barring a sex scandal, there's no way any of our Congressional delegation is going to be defeated any time soon.

      As for Hoven, he's the sort of moderate Republican that tends to attract a nice primary challenge from the Club for Growth hacks.  So far he's been better than our last governor, Shaffer, who asked our state universities to cut 5% of their budgets, which was like telling an anorexic gymnast that she needs to lose another five pounds.

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