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View Diary: ND-Sen: Dorgan surprisingly strong versus Hoeven (109 comments)

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  •  Compare 2008 (1+ / 0-)
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    to the 1996 election - ignoring Perot - just the Dole/Clinton two way share vs. the McCain/Obama two way share. Minnesota is redder than in 1996.

    •  1996? (0+ / 0-)

      You said that Minnesota was trending redder in 2008. It's not. And if you go to 2000, Gore won it by an even narrower 2 points. And that's a hell of a lot redder than now:

      Back to 1996, considering that Dole only got 35 percent of the vote in Minnesota, I'm not sure how you can claim that the state was redder then. Clinton got 51 percent of the vote, which was more than Gore got in 2000 and the same that Kerry got in 2004.

      Minneosta is NOT trending redder. It had a bump in 2000, but it's now reverting to form.

      •  read this (1+ / 0-)
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        yes, it's a rightish site, but it's an interesting analysis.

        •  Somewhat interesting (0+ / 0-)

          but hampered by the inability to properly account for Perot voters, which were not insignificant that year. Without account for a large number of voters, the two-party comparisons become less analogous.

          There was undoubtedly a big GOP surge in Minnesota thanks to Bush, and now that's fading. Will it continue to fade in 2012? That remains to be seen, of course, and I'm not advocating we declare "mission accomplished" and get complacent.

          But as of now, the data is clear that Minnesota is trending back in our direction. For the time being.

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