Skip to main content

View Diary: CT-Sen: Dodd in trouble, though not doomed (86 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  This is a repost of mine from HEDGEHOG... (0+ / 0-)

    so, by "Guys", I mean republican ranters and ravers...but this information is just as relevant for democrats, especially for democrats who think the sky is falling the moment some polls show temporary weakness for a DEM candidate.

    "You know, thinking that a republican is going to win a senate seat in CT is pretty much like thinking that a democrat is going to win a senate seat in UT. This is plain old nonsense.

    Guys, this states is fool’s gold for the GOP.

    Obama just won this state with 60.59% of the popular vote and swamped McCain’s 38.22% with a 22.37% winning margin, very comparable to McCain’s win in AL. Did anyone here think that Obama was going to win AL? Are there any democratic senators from AL? No.

    You can rejoice all you want over wavering polls for Dodd now, 1 and 1/2 years before the 2010 elections, but on election day in 2010, after having flirted with the GOP as both Connecticut and New Jersey usually do, voters in CT will vote reliably democratic.

    Dodd will win in a landslide. Why? Here’s why:

    Dodd’s worst showing in an election was in 1980, during the "Reagan Revolution", where Dodd landslided with 56.34% over Buckley’s 42.91%, a +13.43% winning margin, and this was his WORST showing ever in electoral politics as a nominated candidate. In 2004, Dodd won with 66.35% to Orchulli’s 32.13%, a +34.22% blowout margin, slightly higher than his +32.78% margin blowout over Gary Franks in 1998, which was also considerably larger than his 1992 margin of +20.69%. So, regardless of administration in the WH, republican or democratic, Dodd has always won in landslides in his homestate, both in the senate and before in CT’s 2nd congressional district.

    Those are the statistics and they are undeniable. Even if the GOP prepares a massive and costly onslaught against Dodd, he has enough core support to bring him over 50% even on his worst day. It’s that simple.

    But what the hey, if the GOP wants to waste the resources, more power to it."

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site