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View Diary: Why Dean can win without the South (321 comments)

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  •  Re: Why Dean can win without the South (none)
    Bush only got 46 percent of the vote in OR. The only reason it was close was Nader's 5 percent.
    •  Re: Why Dean can win without the South (none)
      Just returned from Sothern Oregon.  Ashland is liberal, but Medford is more like redneck country.  Molly Ivins spoke recently at the Armory in Medford and drew a huge crowd, many who could not get in.  People came from all over, even old folks bused in from Rogue Valley Manor. There is a lot of pro-Bush sentiment in the Rogue Valley, but lots of anger as well.

      Fear knocked on the door. Hope answered, and there was no one there. M.L. King, Jr.

      by Mimikatz on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 03:46:32 PM PST

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    •  Oregon (none)
      I live in a 75% republican county in southern Oregon (progressives run as gun-loving independents because you wouldn't have a chance as a dem), and I'd argue that Oregon is by no means a 'safe' state, but should be fairly easy for a Dean. The pro-gun schtick can not by underestimated in the rural west. It is huge cultural issue. It is 'the' litmus test for many voters. It will take some concious effort to actually get many of them to even consider the idea that a dem would be good on 2nd amendment rights, but if the message can get through, along with Dean's relatively moderate environmentalism (the other litmus test) it could mark a major shift.

      The Bushites have made a big push to stoke their base in southern and eastern Oregon by completely backing the rancher/farmers in the Klamath river wars, so they may be able to turn out those folks a bit better, but there is not population growth there, and its going to be super easy for the dems to turn out their base, because the Bushites have been so completely terrible on logging.

      •  Re: Oregon (none)
        Exactly.

        The reason Republicans win in the west is not the same reasons it wins in the South. This is an important point. It is not so much cultural conservatism, but what is perceived as federal interference in gun rights and environmental protection that allows Repubs to rack up big wins (with the exception of the heavily Mormon areas). I think Dean would be as good a candidate as any current Dem in appealing in the West. Not to say he's going to win all (or even many of these states) but he'll do better than the Beltway, DLC crowd believes - this isn't "soccer mom" country. They understand the West about as much as a New York liberal understands Alabama.

        Also remember that particularly in rural areas, poverty is quite pervasive - many parts of the intermountain west have not fared well in the last 20 years.

        Ben P

        Liberalism: not the left, but the vital center

        by Ben P on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 05:06:48 PM PST

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