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View Diary: Why Dean can win without the South (321 comments)

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  •  Re: Why Dean can win without the South (none)
    California, for example, could plausibly be won by George Bush. The state did recently elect a Republican governor, and from all obvious signs Bush isn't terribly unpopular in the Golden State.

    I take it you're not in California.

    The recall election was anything but an indicator of where the state is going in a large political sense.  For starters, Gov. Schwartzengroper is hardly a model of good GOP values as portrayed by Shrub and his right-wing boarding party.  Arnold got elected because Davis was a dead man walking, politically.  He has been for years (literally).  The GOP could have knocked him out with anything more substantial than a feather. But out of political greed, they put up Simon in the general election, a fellow who could shill for Bush in a heartbeat, and he got dusted.  By Davis (who is a damned good campaigner, though he's become terribly unpopular personally).  The recall was about punishing Davis, basically.  It was all about Davis.  And even so... go back and look at how big the margin was for removing Davis.  Even the people who voted for him, very often, were about as thrilled with him as they'd be with a cup of week-old spit.  And he wasn't buried in a landslide.

    Why?  Because the Democrats and independents knew that if he was removed, there was a very high likelihood of Arnold being elected to fill the office.  If the GOP is deluding itself into thinking that it can win one for Shrub in CA, they're deep into their Kool-Aid.  

    On top of that, Arnold's not finding any rabbits in his hat; he's not likely to be able to pull much of a pro-Bush swing vote because he's governor.  By November 2004, if he's not performing, he may be looking down the barrel of a recall himself.  Californians wanted a change, and a change that actually connects with the people, and that works in Sacramento.  The GOP let the recall genie out of the bottle, and there's a lot of discontent coiled and ready to strike again.

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