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View Diary: Morning feature: The Monty Hall problem (with poll and statistics questions answered) (310 comments)

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  •  Depends... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in RI, plf515, SciMathGuy, NCrissieB

    Often the best way to play is to play other suits and try to get more information about your trump suit. Off-trump cards played by opponents may reveal the location of the queen!  (You can get a count on the hand -- the distribution of suits for each player -- or be able to limit the point values or distribution of an opponents hand, with the bidding as an additional clue.)

    When possible, playing a few almost certain winners before working on trumps is the expert's choice. You may lose a few hands when a side suit breaks 6-0 or something else nasty, but the Bayesianpayoff of additional information is usually pretty high.

    Of course, sometimes you have to draw trump first - say, if the bidding has revealed the side suits as freak splits, or you don't have any sure winners to play & the opponents can hurt you with a lead.

    If you don't know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else. Yogi Berra

    by Twin Planets on Tue May 05, 2009 at 07:07:07 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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