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View Diary: Morning feature: The Monty Hall problem (with poll and statistics questions answered) (310 comments)

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  •  This is still and will always be bullshit (0+ / 0-)

    Monty opens a goat door no matter what, so you're really only choosing between two doors. He always opens a goat door, so you can basically ignore what Monty does as part of the probability. The true choice is between your door and the car door, the extra door is there just to confuse people and make for better television.

    The real probability only kicks in after the first round, when you have two options, and thus your initial selection is 50/50. The mathmeticians get all breathless and excited by all the other shit and miss the fact that their numbers are wrong because they're not looking at the problem right.

    •  Wrong (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueMajority, factbased, Toon

      You are wrong, you have been proven wrong by countless simulations, as well as by formal proof.

      it is not 50/50, and you are the one looking at the problem wrong.

      Just because you are choosing between two doors does not mean that they are equally likely.

    •  If Monty offers the choice on a purely random (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515, factbased, NCrissieB, Toon

      basis and not because you chose the right one the first time, (which in the real world, he could do) he is, in effect, allowing you to choose the two doors you did not choose the first time by allowing you to change picks.  It is more likely you chose the wrong door.  1/3 chance right, 2/3 chance wrong.  By revealing a door you didn't pick and allowing you to select the other door you didn't pick, he is giving you two doors as opposed to your initial one. The only thing I'd want to know (from analysis of his past behavior) is whether Monty is more likely to offer this choice when he knows you've chosen the right door the first time. If he does have a bias in his offer, it throws the math off.

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