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View Diary: Morning feature: The Monty Hall problem (with poll and statistics questions answered) (310 comments)

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  •  Probability tree (1+ / 0-)
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    NCrissieB

    Assuming Monty always gives a choice when you choose the car, and those choice opportunities happen twice as often as choices when you have a goat:

    pick the car: 2/6
     - new choice: 2/6
        - stay and win or change and lose
    pick a goat: 4/6
     - new choice: 1/6
        - stay and lose or change and win
     - no new choice: 3/6
        - stay and lose

    Results: Stay and win 2 times in 6. Change and win 1 time in 6.

    Deranged neoconservative militarism isn't the solution to nuclear proliferation; it's a cause. -- Glenn Greenwald

    by factbased on Tue May 05, 2009 at 09:32:00 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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