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View Diary: Morning feature: The Monty Hall problem (with poll and statistics questions answered) (310 comments)

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  •  What's changed is just the knowledge (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, NCrissieB

    Prisoner A's knowledge of what will happen has changed, he just can't do anything about it.

    Before:

    A, B and C each have:
    1/3 chance of being pardoned.
    2/3 chance of being executed.

    After:

    A has a 1/3 + 2/3 chance, same as before
    B has a 100% chance of being executed
    C has a 2/3 chance of being pardoned and a 1/3 chance of being executed.

    If A could switch bodies with C, he should.  But he can't.

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