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View Diary: Morning feature: The Monty Hall problem (with poll and statistics questions answered) (310 comments)

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  •  Here's how.. (2+ / 0-)
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    plf515, NCrissieB finally made sense to me.

    Pretend it's a magic trick.  Or a street con.  You pick a door, and the sharp makes his offer to you to switch.  He can do this one of three ways:

    1. Offer you a switch to any door.  Why switch, it's the same odds with each one.
    1. Offer you the two other doors in exchange for yours.  You double your odds, so you switch every time.
    1. Do the reveal, which makes it look like he's offering #1 when he's really offering #2.

    Opening the door is a classic diversion.  It looks like he's giving you information, but he's really hiding what the offer is.

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