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View Diary: Morning feature: The Monty Hall problem (with poll and statistics questions answered) (310 comments)

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  •  Yes, fatigue varies (1+ / 0-)
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    plf515

    But unless you have evidence that lack of sleep does not affect performance, I'll stand by that point. And the others I made.

    I do believe that people greatly overestimate winning streaks. I also believe there are performance affecting factors at the beginning of a game that can be substantially in effect the entire game.

    How about an Office of Fact Based Initiatives?

    by factbased on Fri May 08, 2009 at 04:53:10 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Argument by equivocation. (0+ / 0-)

      I defined fatigue and injury in terms that vary within a game.  You changed their definitions to be constant throughout the game.  That's argument by equivocation.

      Yes, there are performance factors that don't change much during a game.  I included two in my original response: training and experience.  There are also fatigue and injury issues that are fairly constant throughout a game (e.g.: stomach virus that kept a player from sleeping), or an entire season or career (e.g.: chronic, irreparable joint injury).

      But there are also performance factors that change within a game.  Fatigue as I defined it (fresh vs. winded) and minor injuries (e.g.: muscle cramp) are among those.  They won't always show in the last N shot attempts, because you shouldn't expect much regression to the mean (the Strong Law of Large Numbers) in a sample of only 3 or 4.

      A coach may recognize those factors and rest a player whose last N shot attempts are at or above a season norm, because the coach sees that the player isn't playing well and those last N shots are just noise.  Indeed that happens quite often, as most coaches have planned substitution rotations over the course of a game that take advantage of known game breaks (e.g.: end of 1st or 3rd quarter), to get an "extra" minute or two rest for a player when the action is stopped.

      As to winning streaks, I agree with you.  There are sometimes reasons a team wins or loses several games in a row - e.g.: playing a series of weak opponents, or having key players out with injury - but in most cases it's just statistical noise.

      •  When you started this thread (0+ / 0-)

        you didn't define fatigue and injury in terms that vary within a game. Maybe I missed it elsewhere. But once you narrowed the definition of fatigue, I agreed and stood by my point about sleep or lack of sleep without using the word fatigue.

        You seem to agree that there are game-length performance-affecting factors. So was it just semantics you disagreed with? Note that I find the existence of short-lived factors like being fresh or winded to be obvious and uncontroversial.

        How about an Office of Fact Based Initiatives?

        by factbased on Mon May 11, 2009 at 11:23:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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