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View Diary: FL-Sen: Marco Rubio took my advice (287 comments)

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  •  Win/win for us if Crist loses. (14+ / 0-)
    1. Death of the Republican party
    1. Push a moderate into our (safe) tent
    1. Did I mention #1?

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    -Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Tue May 12, 2009 at 12:51:53 PM PDT

    •  my head is spinning.....help me, mr. wizard!!!!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      polecat

      "See, now you're in the minority. It's supposed to taste like a shit taco." Jon Stewart

      by Punkerpan on Tue May 12, 2009 at 01:05:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Crist could run as an Indy? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        polecat, rhetoricus, Mordoch

        Like Lieberman?

        •  Looks that way. Anyone up to date on FL law? (0+ / 0-)

          That would be SOOOO hilarious.

          And still a net win for us.

          One has to wonder if Crist would win in a 3-way contest in FL.

          Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
          I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
          -Spike Milligan

          by polecat on Tue May 12, 2009 at 01:10:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Jonesing for Indy (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          majcmb1

          Actually, I have been wondering why center-right Republicans, as opposed to the radical-right ones, haven't staked out positions as independents or third party candidates.  There is really no room in the GOP for anyone who does not get 100% on the purity test (exception that proves the rule are the Maine senators).  If Crist ran and won as an independent that would cause another tremor in the foundations of the political right - he doesn't fit in with the conservative Democrats - yet he and other ambitious politicians who can actually win general elections need a home.  Where will that home be?

          •  It's those tremors, whether Crist wins or (0+ / 0-)

            loses, that I'm hoping for.  Damage to the Republican party.  Damage to their itty-bitty tent.

            Headshrinkers.

            Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
            I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
            -Spike Milligan

            by polecat on Tue May 12, 2009 at 07:51:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think you underestimate Marco's chances (7+ / 0-)

      He may take a big chunk of the Latino vote (this splitting the nonwhite vote for the Dem), there's a lot of disenchantment with the Dem candidate, and Marco's very charismatic and (dare I say it) articulate. Be careful what you wish for.

      There are worst opponents than the moderate Crist.

      How we know Daffy Duck is Republican: "It's mine, understand? Mine, all mine! Get back down there! Down down down! Go go go! Mine mine mine! Mwahahaha!" --BiPM

      by rhetoricus on Tue May 12, 2009 at 01:15:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My logic is something like this: (5+ / 0-)
        1. Crist loses in the primary

        1a) He going indy
        1a1) He wins the seat
        1a2) he loses the seat and a Dem wins
        1a3) he loses the seat and Marco wins
        1b) He's OUT

        1. Crist wins the primary by going to the left

        2a) Goes up against a Dem and wins
        2b) Goes up against a Dem and loses.

        Of the five outcomes here (1a1, 1a2, 1a3, 2a, 2b) the only truly bad one is 1a3 (Marco wins the seat).  And that further fractures the Republican party.

        The best move for the Republicans is to suppress Marco and let Crist run unapposed, but they won't do that.  So he gets an ugly pasting, paid for by Republicans, in Florida.  Makes their brand even worse.

        And we could still have a Dem win the seat.

        If he goes Indy, who do you think he will caucus with?

        So, most outcomes of this are decent.  Some are excellent.

        Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
        I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
        -Spike Milligan

        by polecat on Tue May 12, 2009 at 01:23:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I should have known (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Freelance Historian

          you'd be 5 strategic steps ahead.

          1b is also potentially bad, because it puts a semi-weak black Dem candidate against a possibly strong GOP Latino, splintering the nonwhite vote.

          I think a Crist win as an indy would make for a serious brawl at the polls, and the Cuban vote may well not be going Obama-wards this time, alas.

          I don't think a Marco win would fracture the GOP. I think it would unite Latinos behind Marco, and fracture the nonwhite vote in general.

          Not a good thing.

          How we know Daffy Duck is Republican: "It's mine, understand? Mine, all mine! Get back down there! Down down down! Go go go! Mine mine mine! Mwahahaha!" --BiPM

          by rhetoricus on Tue May 12, 2009 at 01:36:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Crist can't win the primay by going to the left (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rhetoricus, Freelance Historian

          We are a closed primary state. Only republicans will be voting for them in the primaries and they hate Crist.

          •  He could, but it would take a major registration (0+ / 0-)

            drive to pull the independents into the Republican party.

            I don't think it will be very likely.

            He's toast one way or the other, and I stand by my prediction that he'll go indy if he really wants the job.

            Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
            I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
            -Spike Milligan

            by polecat on Tue May 12, 2009 at 07:49:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly! Rubio will tone it down in the general (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        majcmb1, rhetoricus

        He'll be funny, charismatic, engaging, etc. I've heard the guy speak at a chamber event. He's freaking likable. I hate to say that, but at this event, it was true. He'll talk about his days as a student in the Poli Sci department at University of Florida way back in '92. He'll appeal to people that the John Boehners of the world would not.

      •  Marco can't win the general unless the economy is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        majcmb1

        still in the shitter or worse in 2010, if the economy begins to recover in 2010, and there are some democratic accomplishments like healthcare reform, and cap and trade, then Rubio doesn't stand a chance.

        The reason why Crist is scary is because if he wins the primary, he'll be the one republicans turn to as a republican who could win. Crist could win even if the economy recovers because he supported the stimulus package.

        •  Crist may be the best-positioned candidate (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          polecat, enough

          but he's hardly the scariest.

          Marco is much scarier. And I do think people are underestimating his appeal, especially to nonwhite voters, when he uses Obama rhetoric.

          How we know Daffy Duck is Republican: "It's mine, understand? Mine, all mine! Get back down there! Down down down! Go go go! Mine mine mine! Mwahahaha!" --BiPM

          by rhetoricus on Tue May 12, 2009 at 03:57:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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