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View Diary: The Dummy's Guide to EXIT polls (48 comments)

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  •  Integrity and Honesty (none)
    If there'e enough discrepency between the exit polls and the actual tally, alarm bells go off. This comment will now be inundated by people saying that this happened this election. It didn't, the discrepencies are well within the 90% confidence interval more than 90% of the time.

    The world's address
    a place that's worn
    a sad pun that reflects a sadder mess
    In case you haven't already guessed:
    The world's a dress.

    by Jaiwithani on Sat Nov 13, 2004 at 08:42:10 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Nope (none)
      It didn't, the discrepencies are well within the 90% confidence interval more than 90% of the time.

      Three states: OH, PA, FL are well outside the 99% confidence interval.

      The chance of each was very small.  The chance of all three occurring together is astronomically small.

      There is no doubt in those three states:  either the pollster systemically screwed up their poll in a major way, or the vote tallying was wrong.

      It is not sampling error.

      --

      Timothy Klein

      by teece on Sun Nov 14, 2004 at 12:23:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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