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View Diary: IN-09: Dems demand a recount (131 comments)

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  •  Left out of the article (none)
    The Libertarian candidate picked up 4,698 votes in this district.  Sodrel's margin of victory was 1,485.

    This looks very promising.

    http://election.cbsnews.com/election2004/state/state_in.shtml

    •  not all those votes are straight ticket (none)
      Even the best case scenario, where all the straight ticket libertarian votes were meant to be Dem votes, wouldn't give us another 4,698 votes. Some of those votes were votes spefically for Al Cox (Libertarian). You can tell this by going through the IN election data county-by-county for the 9th. If the votes were all straight ticket libertarian, Badnarik would have gotten at least as many votes as Cox. Since Cox got more votes than Badnarik in most of these counties (about twice as many seems to be the norm in the large ones), we can assume that not all of Cox's votes will be transferred to Baron. If anyone wants to do a more complete analysis (i have to run models and get to bed, so i can't tonight), the IN election data is here.
      •  Checked Out the County Figures (4.00)

        I noticed that IU/Bloomington's home county, Monroe, reported only 48% turnout of registered voters, which is surprising to me in that a) it's got Bloomington and b) it's heavily Democratic.

        If the turnout there was 5-10% higher Baron Hill would have taken the election, irregularities or not.

        I live in heavily Democratic Lake County, IN, and the turnout here was barely 56%--and I thought that was shameful. It makes the 48% in Monroe look either highly suspect or highly shameful, as well.

        •  Monroe turnout (none)
          The reason for the low turnout% is that the voter rolls have not been purged. Before the election, the voter rolls had 100k plus. Many of these students left.
          The township district I live in (Perry 18) had 75% turnout. Most of the districts that does not have heavy student housing had much higher turnouts.
          •  Thanks for the No Purge Info (none)
            The Indiana SoS Election pages don't break down to precinct level, so thanks for that info, too.
            •  Stuck In My Craw All Day (none)

              I just went back to the IN SoS numbers for Monroe County, because something about them has been bothering me all day--now I have more numbers to look at with more questions.

              According to this .pdf report dated 11/2/2004, there were 104,813 registered and 51,061 voting, for a 49% turnout.

              According to these results from the IN SoS, 37,239 people voted in the IN-09 House race, at 48% turnout.

              Monroe County contains parts of IN-09 and IN-04. 10,691 votes were cast in the IN-04 race at 48% turnout .

              A 6% gap exists between the number of people voting, 51,061, and the combination of votes cast in the U.S. House races, 47,930.

              There are 3,131 "under" votes in these races. If they are broken out between the two Congressional districts in Monroe County, about 80% or 2,500 of those "under" votes are likely to be from the IN-09 race.

              What this all means for the Indiana Democratic Party? Waiting for analysis.

    •  Franklin County issue not apparent in district 9 c (none)
      The Franklin County results showed the Libertarian Candidate getting 7% of the vote in the 8th district race.  This was way out of line with other counties in this race.  There is nothing like this sort of discrepancy in any of the 9th district counties.  The Libertarian vote appears to be in line (0-3%) with other counties.  In other words, it doesn't appear that the same problem that affected Franklin County happened in any of the other counties.

      There may be other reasons to have a recount, but don't expect a repeat of what happened in Franklin County because that symptom does not exist here.

      Indiana house results, as of writing, you can see the 7% discrepancy here by Franklin County

    •  Libertarian candidate (none)
      Compare Al Cox with the other LP candidates for the same office.  His vote total was about average for the race.

      And 7% of the race in limited districts is not per se surprising for a Libertarian in a three way, though it is quite good.  A few towns over from here in a 3-way race for State Senate, Libertarian Carol McMahon got over 10% of the vote.  Also, Indiana has one of the stronger Libertarian state organizations in the country.

      Of course, I am in Massachusetts.

      •  Let's not confuse the issues.... (none)
        Libertarian candidates may get 7% of the vote in some areas, but this did not happen in Franklin County.  That error was found and corrected (though not reflected in the yahoo/ap results).

        The main post seems to suggest that the issue that happened in Franklin county might also have happened in district 9 counties.  Based on the numbers alone, that does not appear to be the case.   There may be other issues and the result was close enough to make a recount reasonable, but people shouldn't derive false hope from the Franklin County issue.  The same issue is not apparent in the vote totals for other counties.

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