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View Diary: VA-Gov: Statistical dead heat, Deeds with mo, McAuliffe with the anti-mo' (181 comments)

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  •  Volatile electorate and bad samples...... (0+ / 0-)

    The subsamples on these polls are all over the place.

    But if there's one consistent trend, it's that McDonnell is always in the mid-40s, and the 3 Dems in trial heats are all over the map.  And the subsamples in all the polls show why:  Republicans and conservatives are unsurprisingly united (why not, they have their candidate!), while the Democratic-performing subgroups (self-identifying Dems; liberals; people of color) have much higher undecideds.

    There will be a Democratic "unity" bump after the primary, at least if the nominee is either Deeds (my choice) or Moran...maybe not so much for McAuliffe, he has the highest negatives even among Dems as this diary itself anecdotally demonstrates.  But any of the 3 will get some kind of bump, and the race suddenly will be closer, and if it's Deeds very close, in all polling.

    In a time of war, is that really the time to be asking whether we should be at war?...When it is over we should ask whether we should leave. -- Stephen Colbert

    by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 07:42:50 PM PDT

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